Bolivia's Day of Reckoning
Tomorrow morning at 10:30 am the Bolivian Congress will convene in Sucre, the modest city of white walls that serves as the country’s second capital (the Supreme Court meets there). Congress is lucky to have a second capital city, as protesters in La Paz have prevented them from using the regular one.
The political forecast for Thursday is ominous. The Congress has placed just three items on tomorrow’s agenda – accepting President Mesa’s resignation and establishing his successor, setting the regional autonomy election demanded by Santa Cruz, and deciding on whether former President Gonzalo Sanchez de Lozada should be tried for the deaths during his tenure in office.
Together these actions could combine to become a “perfect storm” of provocation to the protests that have shut down the country. There is no vote planned on setting forth a national election on the gas issue nor to set in motion a Constituent Assembly to rewrite the constitution – the central demands that have brought Bolivia to a near halt.
The worst outcome of all is the possible election of Senate leader Vaca Diez as President. Last night President Mesa made an impassioned televised plea for Vaca Diez to forgo the Presidency. A new poll shows that only 16% of the country wants him to take office. Nevertheless, he seems hell bent on doing just that.
National protests against Vaca Diez taking office are growing. In addition to calls from the street in La Paz, tomorrow morning a host of civic leaders around the country, including the mayors of La Paz and Cochabamba, will announce a hunger strike calling on Vaca Diez to renounce the nation’s top office and allow new elections to take place in August.
The battle over Baca Diez taking office reveals something essential in the Bolivian struggle. In the indigenous cultures here, community is considered sacred. Community decision-making is respected and one of the lowest attacks that can be leveled against a person is to call him or her egoista, looking out for his or herself at the community’s expense. By any stretch that is what Vaca Diez is doing. Personal ambition and greed versus the desires and well being of the community.
There you have it – Bolivia stripped down to its bare bones.
The political forecast for Thursday is ominous. The Congress has placed just three items on tomorrow’s agenda – accepting President Mesa’s resignation and establishing his successor, setting the regional autonomy election demanded by Santa Cruz, and deciding on whether former President Gonzalo Sanchez de Lozada should be tried for the deaths during his tenure in office.
Together these actions could combine to become a “perfect storm” of provocation to the protests that have shut down the country. There is no vote planned on setting forth a national election on the gas issue nor to set in motion a Constituent Assembly to rewrite the constitution – the central demands that have brought Bolivia to a near halt.
The worst outcome of all is the possible election of Senate leader Vaca Diez as President. Last night President Mesa made an impassioned televised plea for Vaca Diez to forgo the Presidency. A new poll shows that only 16% of the country wants him to take office. Nevertheless, he seems hell bent on doing just that.
National protests against Vaca Diez taking office are growing. In addition to calls from the street in La Paz, tomorrow morning a host of civic leaders around the country, including the mayors of La Paz and Cochabamba, will announce a hunger strike calling on Vaca Diez to renounce the nation’s top office and allow new elections to take place in August.
The battle over Baca Diez taking office reveals something essential in the Bolivian struggle. In the indigenous cultures here, community is considered sacred. Community decision-making is respected and one of the lowest attacks that can be leveled against a person is to call him or her egoista, looking out for his or herself at the community’s expense. By any stretch that is what Vaca Diez is doing. Personal ambition and greed versus the desires and well being of the community.
There you have it – Bolivia stripped down to its bare bones.

The Democracy Center, based in Cochabamba Bolivia and San Francisco California, works globally to advance human rights through a combination of investigation and reporting, training citizens in the art of public advocacy, and organizing international citizen campaigns. If you like the Blog, consider becoming a subscriber to The Democracy Center's free e-newsletter by sending us an email at 
25 Comments:
Revolts of this nature are unfortunately nothing new. Its been said that Vaca Diaz won't last 'dos horas' as President. Bolivians (or those of us Americans with Bolivian ancestry) are somewhat desensitized to this attitude. He isn't going to step aside. And he will be unable to quell this rebellion. I give him more than two hours though, I give him two weeks. tops
What is the attitude of the Bolivian Military in this crisis? What are the prospects for military repression of the popular revolt? Surely, Vaca Diaz would not assume power without a plan to defeat the movement for nationalization etc.
I think you have things wrong. The worst case scenario is not Vaca Diez assuming power, but Morales having unconstrained power to dictate the country's fate.
Hell, even you, Jim, who have been supporting him (note I don't agree with you at all, but respect your position) surely do not want him as an authoritarian president, do you? At least, being part of a pro-democracy NGO, it would look like it, but I never underestimate the naivete of those supporting the extreme left.
What Morales wants to do is to "pull a Chavez". He wants to be elected for office, however "democratic" his means are (such as extorsion and the recolletion penalties for those who didn't go to protest), and once being in power write a new constitution leaving no checks or balances for his power. That is the worst case scenario.
Vaca Diez, on the other hand, is the best thing that can happen to Bolivia if they are ever to have a chance of modernising the economy. He will probably have to use state repression, but because Morales is forcing him to do so, if not by any other reason. So, Hormanda Vaca Diez, you are the only hope.
And, just for the record, I am not a rich Cruceno landowner, but a liberal guy sitting in a computer in the UK. How can I be a liberal and not support Morales? Because I am a liberal, not stupid. I know enough from Latin American politics to know that Morales is seeking to impose a totalitarian regime, which us true liberals do not want. We like to have an opinion on things, not to be forced to anything, like protest, among other things.
So, Jim, sharpen up. You know that as soon as things start getting ugly you can (and probably will) go back to USA and talk about how righteous Morales is, without having to live under his reign. That's so easy, mate.
As I told you before, I respect your opinion, but I would like to see your analysis be less biased. Lots of people read this blog and you have a responsability to them, so don't feed with this crap, i.e. biased account of things, please.
BBC REPORT: "Mr. Vaca Diez, in a press conference televised early today, signaled that the military must be used to restore order and he warned that the protests could lead to a right-wing backlash in the country..."The radicalism of the left leads to totalitarian governments," he said. Mr. Vaca Diez said if radical groups "push for confrontation and a blood bath this will always end in authoritarianism."
Clearly, it is Vaca Diez is who is threatening "totalitarianism"--not those democratic forces opposed to radical market fundamentalism (aka "neo-liberalism").
Only a perverse, Orwellian logic could produce the notion that "state repression", a "bloodbath" and "totalitarianism" are the way to avoid totalitarianism!!
My oh my, you really have it all wrong. Learn to read, please. First, if you read you quote from the BBC, Vaca Diez is trying to avoid a totalitarian regime, not make one. He would be a constitutional president, ok?
Second, he hinted he would use force IF Morales and his thugs went on destroying the country. Which is what any sensible president in any country would do (mesa not, of course, he is too foolish) if things were half as bad as in Bolivia.
Third, many America/European media have Morales confused with Mandela. They think indigenous people in Bolivia are oppressed in an Apartheid-type state and that they have all the right to do what they are doing. Evo is, and now I am paraphrasing Vargas Llosa, who I am sure you will respect more than me, not an indigenous leader seeking more rights for an oppressed group of people, but an outspoken creole, wittier than a squirrel, who is producing chaos just in order to become a dictator.
And I don't know in which world you live, but it is obviously not the third one. Is easy to say that blood spilling is more wrong than a leftist dictatorship from your silver chair, isn't it? You don't have to go thru any of it, but it is still a nice subject for your diner parties. The truth is, and please mark my words with this: DEMOCRACY IS WORTH DEFENDING AT ANY PRICE, INCLUDING SOME LIVES.
Or are you forgetting the fact that all great western democracies, were born (and defended) in extremely bloody conflicts: The US gained its democracy after an independence WAR against england, not in ballots and with people willing to respect each other's opinion. I guess that, as all wars, the result was that some people died, I am right? England gained its parliamentary democracy after a bloody civil war, Germany acquired its democracy after nazism, which is less desirable than WWII, otherwise, history would be different, don't you think? Italy gained democracy after fascists, France had a bloody revolution in the 18th century, and several uprising afterewards, and the list goes on and on.
So, my dear bleeding heart, do you really think that a Castrist government is better than defending democracy at whatever cost? You think that bastard Castro is not killing people as of today? You knew I could fuck whatever Cuban I want for the pricely sum of $10 because of the poverty Castro has caused? If you want that for Bolivia, then you are not only more perverse than anyone here, but probably less well informed, too. But I implore you, get off your cloud first.
Please read the following article, which is better informed than most about the current situation.
www.spectator.org/dsp_article.asp?art_id=8271
I think democracy is well worth having Vaca Diez until 2007. And, please, mind again that he would CONSTITUTIONALLY elected. Not like Evo and his thugs who are just forcing people into protests. But I guess that is the Bolivia you like, right? Right?
And also answer me this: Are you, as of now in Bolivia? I know I am not, but I lived there for 3 years and am constantly in touch with people suffering Evo's dictates firsthand.
This comment isn't worth posting as a Blog entry so I'll post it here. I am always amazed at how people love to project their anger and frustration at other people, regardless of the facts. I defy the reader criticizing me as an unabashed Evo backer to find the actual words, anywhere in my writing, where I cast myself as such.
And, if our unidentified reader sitting in the comfort of his UK flat does not appreciate the severity of the risk that a Vaca Diez rise to the Presidency will provoke military repression and an outbreak of violence, then he has fooled himself mightily.
Jim Shultz
This is a question:
If Vaca Diez becomes President, and that leads to violence, would that necessarily be a bad thing? Bolivia needs the rule of law restored, and Carlos Mesa's nice-guy approach doesn't seem to have worked. Maybe what Bolivia needs is a strongman willing to use the military to kill far more protestors than Sanchez de Lozada ever did. A Bolivian Pinochet might solve this problem.
Again, that's really a question. I would normally be strongly opposed to anything like this, but the current situation has made me doubt that democracy can work before the protest movement is crushed. This is a terrible option, but it seems to be the best of the many terrible options Bolivia currently faces.
So please, tell me why I'm wrong.
You may not be a total Morales supporter, but you certainly buy into the workers/peasants against the ruling class thing. That's a gross and romantic simplification of what's going on and what's driving it.
The whole issue is so much more confused than that.
You're anti-neoliberal, but what exactly do you propose? Nationalizing the gas? Socialism?
And talking about the indigenous communities as being so pro-community. Maybe the folks in your region are different than those I worked with, but where I worked people are people - some are community oriented, some aren't. Romanticising the workers and indigenous does no one a service. I recall one of my coworkers saying, "You know, I'm sick and tired of talking about how the indigenous have a deep respect and connection to their environment - it's just not true." Another friend went to school to be a lawyer to defend indegenous rights. After a few months actually working in the communities he said, essentially, "fuck the indigenous". Not because they were bad, but because they were not the romantic, community-focused, tree-hugging vision he imagined, but petty, self-interested, confused folks just like the rest of us. Both of these people were (and still are) avowed Bolivian leftists.
They just had some reality smack them in the face.
Is Vaca Diez a mistake? Probably. But then again Morales and Mallku (god save us) are racists who have made a shambles of whatever democracy Bolivia had.
Both should have either worked through the system (and don't give me the old, "the system is corrupt" BS - did you see all the indigenous folks in the senate of late??) or been arrested for sedition.
If Vaca Diez comes into power and hammers down in a totalitarian crackdown the seeds of that were not sown by neoliberalism or the world bank as much as by Morales and Mallku who will only accept democratic results that break their way.
This post has been removed by a blog administrator.
And before anyone says it, yes, I'm sure Vaca Diez is probably a flaming racist himself. I'm not a fan.
Unfortunately it's all radicalizing into two side - Vaca Diez and the "crush the rebellion under our jack boots" side and the "lets kill all the white people and impliment a workers socialist coca growing paradise" side.
I hope they do call elections, if for no other reason than because I can see no other way of avoiding mass bloodshed of one way or another.
The other seeds of this were planted when Mesa basically sold Goni down the river. If Goni was guilty of anything, Mesa should have demanded process, process, process, not pressured extradition. Goni may have overstepped (maybe murder, I don't know), but Mesa sent the clear message that was heard by everyone - "Screw the democratic process, screw the judicial process - if you disagree, protest violently. We won't respond - because violence is always bad - and you'll get your way."
Thanks Carlos!
Sorry I couldn't write earlier. So, now all discussion on Vaca Diez is useless, as he won't be president.
However, I have to agree with some posts in the last hours. One, violence would not have been a necessarily bad thing, if it restored the rule of law.
Two, the worst thing that can happen has happened: Evo is his way to the presidency, by the urns, and if he loses, by the force of the protests. It has come to a situation where the masses do not respect the law and do not care for democracy. They know now that they can achieve whatever they want, however ludicrous, if they protest enough. You, Jim, at the DEMOCRACY center: Is that democracy? Last time I checked it wasn't.
Third, you, Jim, are more left than right. Nothing wrong with that. However, Andrew T. is right: you have romanticized the struggle as a battle between a rich, egotist class, and a poor, innocent class that is also more in touch with mother earth. Not so simple, actually.
Fourth: If things go to the worst possible scenario (an Evo dictatorship, Chavez style), can you swear by all gods you would not leave Bolivia?
Fifth: Let's hope for a peaceful end for this situation now that Rodriguez is president and elections will be called.
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