New Poll Shows Quroga-Medina-Morales
A new poll from Apoyo, Opinión y Mercado published in La Razón shows Jorge Quiroga firmly in the lead for the Dec. 4 presidential elections, followed by Samuel Doria Medina and Evo Morales in a virtual heat. Here are the results:
[A note: If anyone knows some detail on the methodology used in these polls that would be a useful addition here. I would presume that taking an accurate pulse of voters in the campo is pretty tricky.]
Jorge Quiroga 22%
Samuel Doria Medina 16%
Evo Morales 15%
Hormando Vaca Díez 4%
Manfred Reyes 3%
Jaime Paz Zamora 3%
Juan Carlos Durán 3%
Source: Apoyo, Opinión y Mercado / La Razón
[A note: If anyone knows some detail on the methodology used in these polls that would be a useful addition here. I would presume that taking an accurate pulse of voters in the campo is pretty tricky.]
Jorge Quiroga 22%
Samuel Doria Medina 16%
Evo Morales 15%
Hormando Vaca Díez 4%
Manfred Reyes 3%
Jaime Paz Zamora 3%
Juan Carlos Durán 3%
Source: Apoyo, Opinión y Mercado / La Razón
posted by The Democracy Center at 8:04 PM
The Democracy Center, based in Cochabamba Bolivia and San Francisco California, works globally to advance human rights through a combination of investigation and reporting, training citizens in the art of public advocacy, and organizing international citizen campaigns. If you like the Blog, consider becoming a subscriber to The Democracy Center's free e-newsletter by sending us an email at 
15 Comments:
For newbies to this blog, go here first:
http://www.publiushpundits.com/?p=1308
and/or here
http://bolicarreras.blogspot.com/2005/07/
ngos-shenanigans-what-is-behind-bolivia_06.html
Is this a poll of European Bolivians, European & mestizo Bolivians, or European & mestizo & indigenous Bolivians? If the results of this poll (and the next election) were broken down by race, how would they differ from the overall results? Can Evo Morales be thought to represent indigenous Bolivians when he speaks only Spanish? Or do many of the indigenous Bolivians speak Spanish as well as Quechua or Aymara?
Did you read somewhere that Evo speaks only Spanish? I am fairly certain he speaks both Quechua and Aymara.
Many Indigenous Bolivians speak 2 or 3 languages as well, ie. their own language and Spanish, and possibly another indigenous language (or, of course, a foreign language if they are urban and have studied a language or if they have traveled). The vast majority in the cities speak Spanish (basically all except for some more elderly transplants), most in towns, and even a significant number in the campo. In the latter case, often men speak more Spanish than women, as they are more often the ones to travel to the cities or deal with outsiders.
It is still important to speak the indigenous languages, for the sake of those who don't speak Spanish, as well as for the many who are much less confident in Spanish, and more generally out of respect.
I lived in a very Aymara neighborhood in La Paz. My elderly landlady did not speak Spanish, but her husband did. Everyone else I knew in the neighborhood spoke good Spanish. But to see the same people - particularly the women - in meetings in which they all spoke Aymara was to see them really shine. People I'd always thought meek and quiet were suddenly confident and telling jokes and holding their own with the ones who dominated more in Spanish.
Any of us who speak more than one language often notice that we exhibit slightly different personalities depending on which tongue we are speaking. In a country like Bolivia where so much of the population speaks the primary national language as a second language, this phenomenon is not just individual but social, cultural, and even political.
But I'm sorry to say, Paul, I don't have those ethnically broken down poll stats, nor would I venture a guess as to who, exactly, supports Evo. Good questions. And I don't even know quite how census types break down the different groups, since, aside from a few blonde/blue types and some indigenous campesinos, the distinctions between indigenous, mestizo, and white tends to be a question of cultural self-identification more than actual ethno-geneological background (technically, the vast majority of Bolivians have some mixed heritage). Such self-identification is influenced by myriad social, cultural, economic, geographic, and political factors.
Yes. I should have done more research. I took it on faith that Carlos Alberto Montaner had it right...
Evo Morales, an Indian who speaks only Spanish....
Elsewhere I find...
One note of powerful symbolism: Evo Morales's speaks Spanish, but his first tongue is the Aymará language.
Leader of the coca growers, Evo Morales, is himself not a fluent Aymara or Quechua speaker. But he is careful to use indigenous terms.
Morales, who was born in an impoverished village and speaks Spanish, Quechua, and Aymara, migrated from the cold Andean highlands to the hot lowlands where coca grows, to seek his fortune -- the story of many cocaleros.
So presumably he has some understanding of Quechua and Aymara, but he may or may not be fluent. How is that for solid reporting?
He preferred to frame the U.S.-Bolivian war on drugs as a war on his people, the Quechua and Aymara, who have been growing coca for thousands of years, and have been suffering attacks from white colonizers for centuries. "Zero coca means zero Quechua and Aymara," he said.
It is notable that coca is believed by both the Quechua and Aymara people to be a direct gift to them from Pachamama.
The Spanish language
became a part of the culture as a result of Spanish control before receiving independence in 1825. Spanish is the official language, it is spoken by 3,483,700 people, yet of these only about half of speak it as their first language. Spanish is spoken by many of the mestizos and Bolivians of European descent, but is not spoken by about 40% of the Native American population. A large portion of the population speaks Quechua, the language of the Inca, or Aymará, the pre-Inca language. There are 18,452 Quechua monolinguals, 65,649 bilinguals in Spanish, and 32,382 trilinguals in Aymara and Spanish. Compound dialects of Spanish-Aymará and Spanish- Quechua are also widely spoken. Spoken Living Languages: Araona, Aymara, Ayoreo, Baure, Callawalla, Cavinea, Chacobo, Chipaya, Chiquio, Chorote, Ese Ejja, Gurani, Guarayu, Ignaciano, Itonama, Leco, Movima, Pachuara, Pauserna, Plautdietsch, Quecha, Reyesano, Sirono, Tacana, Toba, Toromono, Trinitario, Tsimane, Uru, Wichilhamtes, Yaminahua, Yuqui, Yuracare. Among some of the extinct languages: Canichana, Cuyubaba, Itene, Jora, Saraveca, Shinabo.
Ethnic Identity and Mother Language of Respondents in 2002 USAID Survey in Bolivia
Mestizo (66.1% of population, 36.3% speak indigenous)
White (20.2% of population, 17.2% speak indigenous)
Indigenous (10.2% of population, 68.9% speak indigenous)
Black (2.0% of population, 22.4% speak indigenous)
Cholo (1.5% of population, 86.7% speak indigenous)
All Races ( 100.0% of population, 36.6% speak indigenous)
"Cholo: a term commonly used to describe a person of indigenous or mixed descent who lives in urban areas."
On the elections in Bolivia, including a great interview with Oscar Olivera (it's all in Spanish) highly recommended. go to this link:
http://www.lavaca.org/actualidad/actualidad1123.shtml
It has nothing to do with the language Evo Morales speaks or not...the real question here is if he is elected president will Bolivia survive without international finantial cooperation? Unfortunatey we are a country that survives with this money...we are beggars...and maybe Evo Morales is the chance to become producers and owners of our own country.
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