Bolivia Article in The Economist

A colleague of mine just sent me this new article from The Economist on the unfolding political situation here. I think that it is a very solid analysis worth reading.

That said, I would note two things for readers. First, writing that Evo Morales is in first place in the polls should also include a note (as we have on this Blog) that he would still need to build an almost impossible political coalition of 51% in order to actually take office. Second, I have not picked up any of the middle class movement toward MAS described in the article, by which people negative on Evo are “starting to think it would be less bad to have Mr. Morales in government than in the streets.”

In perspective these are minor points and, again, I think the article is solid.


THE ECONOMIST

Bolivia: September 29, 2005

LEGAL FUEL ON A POLITICAL FIRE

IN JUNE, for the second time in 20 months in Bolivia, the president was toppled by weeks of protests. Calm returned only when an early election for president and Congress was fixed for December 4th. Now the Constitutional Court has put that date in doubt, in a ruling that bears on a widening regional split. Unless the politicians move fast, more
turmoil could ensue.

Under the constitution, the 130 seats in the lower house of Congress are supposed to be redistributed after each national census. The latest census, in 2001, would take six seats from La Paz, the capital, and the impoverished Altiplano, and give four to Santa Cruz, an eastern boomtown. Western Bolivia is already sore at Santa Cruz's demands for autonomy. To avoid further rows, Congress decreed that the December poll would use the 1992 census. The court, rightly, struck this down as unconstitutional.

Many hope that the election produces a government with a clear mandate, breaking the deadlock between the political establishment and various radical movements who claim to speak for indigenous Bolivians. It could go the way of the radicals. A poll by Apoyo, a Peruvian firm, puts Evo Morales, a left-wing coca-workers' leader who backed the protests, in front with 28%.

Some among the middle-class are starting to think it would be less bad to have Mr Morales in government than in the streets. That is partly because Mr Morales is sounding more moderate, if not always convincingly. He wants to legalise coca, but says his government would have "zero tolerance" for cocaine traffickers. His campaign has played down previous talk of nationalising the gas industry. Meanwhile, the traditional parties have failed to unite behind a single candidate: the Apoyo poll gave 22% to Jorge Quiroga, a conservative ex-president, and 19% to Samuel Doria Medina, a cement magnate and former minister.

Eduardo Rodriguez, Bolivia's caretaker president, insists that the election will take place on schedule. His aides are talking to Congress on amending the electoral law. The electoral authority has said a decision must be made by October 8th. If Congress amends the law, it risks inflaming regional tension. But if the election is delayed, the radicals may take to the streets. Either way, Bolivia's interlude of calm may soon be over.