Bolivia and the Debate Over Gas and Oil: A New Briefing Paper
Readers:
The Democracy Center is in the middle of a series of in-depth research projects in Bolivia these days – from a follow-up on the impact of the water revolt six years later, to a serious look at the policy debate over what it means to “nationalize” Bolivia’s gas and oil. Because of the strong interest in the issues that we are researching, from time to time we are going to publish shorter “issue briefs” that capture our initial findings along the way. Today we present the first of these: Oil and Gas Policy in Bolivia – A Post-election Update. The brief was written by two Democracy Center researchers, Aaron Luoma, Gretchen Gordon (and edited by me).
Below is the opening to it and here is the link to the full brief. We appreciate your feedback on these and how to make them more valuable in the future.
Jim
Oil and Gas Policy in Bolivia – A Post-election Update
In power now just over two months, Bolivia's new MAS government, led by President Evo Morales, has moved swiftly to announce plans for changes in the hydrocarbons sector. These include breathing new life into the state-controlled oil and gas company (YPFB) and securing investment for new development projects. Many of these initial changes stem from the 2005 Hydrocarbons law that was passed during the Mesa administration, but which has not yet been fully implemented.
The international investment community seems to be regarding the new Bolivia with eager interest, as opposed to the capital flight some analysts predicted. In terms of a more radical restructuring or complying with the promised nationalization of the industry, progress has been limited. While rhetoric remains strong, the failure to meet the public demand for profound change could bring social unrest in the future. Things to watch for are the upcoming April announcement of a more detailed government plan for oil and gas, and a June deadline for the revision of all contracts as mandated in the May hydrocarbons law.
Click here to read the full issue brief.
The Democracy Center is in the middle of a series of in-depth research projects in Bolivia these days – from a follow-up on the impact of the water revolt six years later, to a serious look at the policy debate over what it means to “nationalize” Bolivia’s gas and oil. Because of the strong interest in the issues that we are researching, from time to time we are going to publish shorter “issue briefs” that capture our initial findings along the way. Today we present the first of these: Oil and Gas Policy in Bolivia – A Post-election Update. The brief was written by two Democracy Center researchers, Aaron Luoma, Gretchen Gordon (and edited by me).
Below is the opening to it and here is the link to the full brief. We appreciate your feedback on these and how to make them more valuable in the future.
Jim
Oil and Gas Policy in Bolivia – A Post-election Update
In power now just over two months, Bolivia's new MAS government, led by President Evo Morales, has moved swiftly to announce plans for changes in the hydrocarbons sector. These include breathing new life into the state-controlled oil and gas company (YPFB) and securing investment for new development projects. Many of these initial changes stem from the 2005 Hydrocarbons law that was passed during the Mesa administration, but which has not yet been fully implemented.
The international investment community seems to be regarding the new Bolivia with eager interest, as opposed to the capital flight some analysts predicted. In terms of a more radical restructuring or complying with the promised nationalization of the industry, progress has been limited. While rhetoric remains strong, the failure to meet the public demand for profound change could bring social unrest in the future. Things to watch for are the upcoming April announcement of a more detailed government plan for oil and gas, and a June deadline for the revision of all contracts as mandated in the May hydrocarbons law.
Click here to read the full issue brief.
posted by The Democracy Center at 4:51 PM
The Democracy Center, based in Cochabamba Bolivia and San Francisco California, works globally to advance human rights through a combination of investigation and reporting, training citizens in the art of public advocacy, and organizing international citizen campaigns. If you like the Blog, consider becoming a subscriber to The Democracy Center's free e-newsletter by sending us an email at 
37 Comments:
Evo Morales 'padlocked' in palace
Good work.
However, why is the new tax usually phrased as a jump from 18% to 50%, when two articles that came out immediately after the law passage said:
"The controversial law, signed Tuesday despite opposition from Bolivian President Carlos Mesa, raises taxes on oil and gas production to 50% from around 38%."
"After enacting a new hydrocarbons law that raises a combined royalty and non-deductible tax on oil and gas production to 50% from about 38%, Bolivia continues to be shaken by protests that threaten the stability of the country and could wreak havoc on the economy."
Don't/didn't oil and gas companies pay some sort of income/profit tax? How do these tax rates compare to the 18%, 38%, and 50% numbers?
Why did the Bolivian congress/parliament give 90% of the new 32% tax to the states (i.e. Tarija)?
Why did Bolivia, one of if not the poorest nation in South America, offer a significantly discounted “solidarity” price to Brazil and Argentina?
Couldn't a below market price have been Bolivia's way of paying for the pipeline and industry investment?
Assuming that the higher prices that Bolivia hopes to charge are accepted by Brazil and Argentina, is it not possible that oil and gas partners might actually make more more than they did before?
Why does president Morales stated that "gas reserves have been ‘looted’ since privatization in the mid-1990s" when the price of exported gas and oil was determined by the Bolivian government? Why would Morales be willing to continue to work with companies that have been 'looting' his country?
Who might be among the 200,000 homes that YPFB hopes to connect? Will they be connected for free or will the government charge for this service?
Is Access to the Sea/Hatred of Chileans a common theme among Hispanics, Quechuans, and Aymarans (it seems to be) or are these themes concentrated in just one or two of these groups (Chileans are potential customers of Bolivian gas)?
Paul V asked:
"Is Access to the Sea/Hatred of Chileans a common theme among Hispanics, Quechuans, and Aymarans (it seems to be) or are these themes concentrated in just one or two of these groups (Chileans are potential customers of Bolivian gas)?"
I think these issues are more concentrated in Quechuas and Aymaras. They see Chileans as Hispanics (or Europeans) that "stole" our sea... and the whole speech about the 500 years of oppression is just repeated. By this "speech" I mean blaming someone else for the actual situation and poverty of Bolivia. It is always easy to blame Spaniards, Chileans, US, Hispanics, etc, than to accept that we all failed in building a country for all.
I know very few Indigenous that are willing to accept that the past is the past and that we have is the future. And that we should left the past behind (learn from it, but leave it behind) and think about the posibilites of negotiating with Chile.
However, dividing Bolivia between Hispanic, Quechuas and Aymaras is quite dangerous. There is a lot more than that, and I am not talking about Guaranies, Mojeños, Chiquitanos, etc... I am talking that in our majority, Bolivians are mixed, we are mainly Mestizos, some of which could claim to be pure Hispanic, some of which would love to be pure Inkas. I guess the key is on understanding that the mixing of cultures and races, made this country, and accepting the richness of our diversity.
Point taken.
Do the Indigenous in general believe as I do it that the primary industry hurt by the loss of the Antofagasta region was the mining industry? Do they believe that in addition to the rich mining land taken by Chile in the War that many Indigenous miners and future miners suffered reduced prosperity as did the Bolivian mining industry? Or do the Indigenous or others believe the loss of the sea affected life in many more ways than mining? If so, in what ways?
I have been under the impression that Europeans, those of European descent, or Indigenous who practiced European-style control benefitted the most from Bolivian mining, which is why I have some difficulty understanding why the common Indigenous are so determined to get access to the sea. But maybe it isn't about mining.
For example, do Bolivians have a right to claim that the loss of ocean fishing rights was a significant loss?
Maybe it isn't even about the sea. Maybe the Indigenous are mostly unhappy that their land was taken away, or that meaningless polical boundaries exist between Bolivia, Chile, and Peru.
It may be a complicated issue. But since it is such an obviously important issue to Bolivians, I am trying to get a better understanding of it.
Paul, I could give you my point of view. But clearly, that will be biased by my cultural and ethnical background. I am not indigenous, and could be considered as "European" (from a Bolivian point of view).
What I see is that indigenous people never benefited from mining. I general, historically, they never benefited from anything. It was always someone else who exploited them and took the profit, first Spaniards, then, Criollos and Mestizos.
So, I think that in general the lost of the Sea is not analyzed from an economical point of view (like any Bolivian export will be always more expensive than a Peruvian or Chilean one because of transport costs, or the lost of Cooper mining, or Guano), but is more a psycological feeling that we lost something, or being more sincere, that something was "stolen" from us.
So, from that point of view the anger against Chileans is not because our economy will be always less competitive (because of transport costs as I say) but because of the feeling that they took something it was ours. Could sound childish, but that is the way it is. Bolivians, as I see us, we love complaining and blaming someone else. Most of all indigenous people have this perpetual feeling of the "500 years of injustice", and the lost of the sea just continues this "injustice" against them.
From my point of view, the lost of the sea affected tremendously the future development of Bolivia. We lost the biggest cooper mine in the world, our transport costs are higher for any product, we even didnt benefit from migrations (as I believe they are always a benefit for the receiving countries) as Chile or Argentina did.
Being landlocked affected not only our economy, but our way of viewing the world, we were always closed to it, even in the early 1900's news arrived late (and also industrial supplies from europe and the US, making industries les competitive in a regional point of view for example).
However, what I think we should do is to look for our competitive advantages, and in this case that is clearly Gas. For the first time in a long time we have something we can (and should) negotiate with. I have gas, I need Sea, lets talk.
But in any case, that is my very personal point of view, and I am not sure of representing the bulk of Bolivians.
"So, I think that in general the lost of the Sea ... is more a psychological feeling that ... something was "stolen" from us."
Arturo, that may sum it up best.
When you say "I have gas, I need Sea, lets talk," are you saying that you personally believe access to the sea still needs to be regained for economic reasons, or are you saying that it needs to be regained mostly for the psychological benefit of all Bolivians, so that the issue can finally be put to rest?
Wikipedia's history of Bolivia notes that shortly following the war, "an increase in the world price of silver brought Bolivia a measure of relative prosperity and political stability in the late 1800s. During the early part of the 20th_century, tin replaced silver as the country's most important source of wealth." However, in the early 20th century, "Living conditions of the indigenous peoples, who constituted more than half of the population, remained deplorable."
I don't see any indication that the indigenous peoples benefitted greatly from the mining industry (although they weren't forced into menial labor, so they must have thought it better than alternatives). If the indigenous people have suffered 500 years of oppression, 360 of those years predate the War of the Pacific, and their loss of access to the sea.
Wikipedia says "Popular belief attributes much of the country's problems to its landlocked condition; conversely, recovering the seacoast is seen as the solution to most of these." Well, if access to the sea will solve most of your problems, I can see why it is sought after.
I just wonder if the psychological and economic damage wasn't far greater for the Creole leadership of Bolivia than it was to the indigenous. Yet somehow the indigenous have come to adopt the loss of the sea as damage done to them that was in fact most inflicted on European descendants. Could it partially be because "Currently, the leading Bolivian newspaper 'El Diario' still features at least a weekly editorial on the subject"?
BTW, Wikipedia has a terrific account of the War of the Pacific. Miguel Grau Seminario was quite the honorable warrior and defender of the sea, even if he did support the Civilista Party, "primarily composed of the newly rich merchants, planters, and businesspeople in Peru (especially those who benefited themselves with the Guano Boom exportations)."
Arturo, you say,
"It is always easy to blame Spaniards, Chileans, US, Hispanics, etc, than to accept that we all failed in building a country for all."
Who is the "we" you are refering to? Throughout your comments you refer to a "we" that you do not define, but I presume you define as "we Bolivians."
You acknowledge mining has only gone to the benefit of mestizos or europeans, but what are the full implications of that?
My reading of Bolivian history would indicate to me that the only "we" you could mean is "we" - "people of European or mixed descent." It doesn't take an expert in Bolivian history to recognize the caste system in Bolivia. True, there are plenty of mixed people in Boliva, and I personally subscribe to the notion that race is a social and historical construction, but nevertheless, from all accounts those identified as "indos" or "campesinos" have been systematically discriminated against throughout BOlivian history. Even when the MNR attempted to inact progressive land reforms following the 1952 revolution, many of their policies reflected what they, as mestizos, thought was best for the Indigenous population. Also the MNR's relabling of the Indigenous majority "campesinos" rather than "indios" did not in fact change the structures of discrimination.
The Bolivian state has been run historically by European or Mestizo elites - In the late 19th century, the Bolivian state was directly run in the interest of the mining industry by silver oligarchs in the conservative party. After the revolution in 1899, the liberal party ran the state in the interest of the rosca (tin magnates). Skipping over the turbulence of 1932-1952, after the Revolution, attempts were made, to do good by the indigenous majority. In 1952 Hernán Siles declared, “We are going to incorporate the campesinos into the Bolivian economy and national life so that they are no longer the objects of derision.” Nevertheless, the terms of this incorporation was defined by the urban, mestizo policy makers. For both the MNR right and the labor movement at the time (in fact they used language of "uniting as Bolivians" quite similar to yours, no offense), indigeneity was a major impediment to national progress. Under the MNR and subsequent military dictatorships, the indigenous altiplano was excluded, while vast government and US subsidies fostered the development of the Santa Cruz bourgeoisie (some gratitude those a**holes have).
Well, skipping over the details of the rest of the history (I'm short on time), the indigenous majority continued to be treated (I'm obviously not saying they actually were) as passive subjects, who at best were patronized by the military peasant pact. It has only been since the rise of the katarista movement in the 70s, the formation of the CSUTCB, the subsequent rise of the indigenous rights movement in Bolivia and internationally, and finally the articulation of indigenous- and class-based demands in the 2000-2005 insurrections, that someone of indigenous descent, Evo, could get elected.
Now i say all of this for two reasons:
One, Indigenous people have been excluded from almost all officially sanctioned forms of decision making, have never benefited from the mining industry, and historyically would not have benefited from any other "development."
Two, your statement regarding history could not be more wrong:
"I know very few Indigenous that are willing to accept that the past is the past and that we have is the future. And that we should left the past behind (learn from it, but leave it behind) and think about the posibilites of negotiating with Chile."
I could not more strenously disagree with this comment.
But anyway, sorry for the diatribe, i'm not sure how much it relates per se to the arguments at hand and I probably got carried away. Plus I'm just a gringo so what do I know.
-Alex
Alex,
My whole statement was from a very personal point of view. I clarified that at the begining. So, it could be wrong from an historical point of view. But it is right from the way I see it. At the end what is the truth? Is there an absolut truth? I doubt it.
Now, for claryfing one point. It is very romantic to think that Evo´s government is the final point in the sad indigenous history. When they (they=indigenas, campesinos) finally take the power they deserve. That is just very romantic, and probably very appealing to hear. But the simple truth is that Evo´s government is mestizo, Evo himself is mestizo.
And about: "Two, your statement regarding history could not be more wrong
I could not more strenously disagree with this comment."
What is wrong with my statment?
I said I know very few indigenous people that.... I didn´t say "indigenous people are....", or "history shows that......". It was a very personal statment. May be I don´t know enough people. You can have a diffrent opinion, but that´s yours (from your perspective) and none is more truth than the other. (The fact that you define yourself as "gringo" doesn´t mean that you are always right....)
Arturo,
Two comments:
you are totally right on your point about Evo taking power and this not being the end to indigenous exclusion. I was going to clarify my own personal view in my previous post, but I forgot. So my own though is that Evo capturing state power may provide really difficult delemmas for indigenous people. If Evo fails, like what happened in Ecuador, it may be a huge blow. Plus, I don't know if it is possible to use state power for the purposes Evo and Garcia Linera have laid out, i.e. creating a participitory, anti-capitalist society that reflects Bolivia's indigenous majority. However, the constituent assembly may provide an opportunity to advance the dual agenda of indigenous empowerment and decentralize anti-capitalism (if people want to pursue this agenda).
So definitely I agree, and I also agree, as you point out, that there is no "true" history.
What I meant about disagreeing with your comment regarding history was that it seemed like despite your acknowledgement of the need to learn from history that you were suggesting that the past should be forgotten and buried. I wanted to suggest that the past, i.e. history, is alive and continues to shape the present and future. Until the historical grevences against Bolivia's indigenous majority have been addressed, people won't forget the past. But anyway, I feel like you probably meant this more in the context of the fight with Chile, I just wanted to drive hope the above point about history being important to remember, especially for those who have been marginalized.
Oh and I think you misinterpreted my comment about being a gringo...
I meant that because i'm a gringo I probably DONT know the whole picture of what we are talking about ;-)
-Alex
Earlier, upon reading the March 23 blog that first mentioned the possibility of negotiating with Chile for access to the sea, I looked up The War of the Pacific in Wikipedia and also found it to be a very good, and very extensive, background piece for this subject.
I don't feel like I have a lot invested in the access to the sea arguement so I've just been listening, but I think the conversation has been very incisive, honest, and interesting. Even so, none of the commentary has degenerated into personal attacks. Hats off to my fellow bloggers.
A headline I saw recently said two more countries in South America, Argentina and Uruguay, will be ending their military's participation in the US School of the Americas, Fort Benning, Georgia. This is a military "school" run by the US military to teach Latin American military officers how to professionalize their force and respect human rights like the US military does. Not for nothing has this institution earned the nickname School of the Assassins. Not for nothing do thousands of Americans of good conscience go the school every year to protest its exsistence, some get arrested, some get brutalized.
Their most famous graduate, at least in the States, is Roberto D'Aubuisson, famous for ordering the assassination of Archbishop Oscar Romero, less famous for ordering the deaths of thousands of other Salvadorans.
Bolivia should realize that the United States is not giving things away; any training Bolivian military officers receive in the SOA is training to temper their loyalty to Bolivia and its people with an understanding of and sympathy to the more important interests of the great and good United States of America (excuse me while I barf).
Let Bolivia be the next country to declare its independence from this tentacle of US imperialism.
Bolivia's Morales makes first slip
talking about oil...
this article is interesting:
http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/
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