Gas and Oil Nationalization: Two Important New Briefing Papers from The Democracy Center
The popular demand for gas and oil nationalization is a long-standing one in Bolivia, and has been at the forefront of national politics for three years. On May 1, 2006 Bolivian President Evo Morales issued an historic executive decree declaring the "nationalization" of Bolivia's oil and gas reserves.
The Democracy Center is dedicated to providing its readers with up to date and accurate analysis of this issue as it unfolds. For the past few weeks we have been working on two important briefing papers on the decree that are now posted on our Web site.
The first is a briefing paper on the decree and what it actually means in terms of concrete policy. That brief was written by Gretchen Gordon, a gas and oil researcher with The Democracy Center. Here is the link to the paper.
The second briefing paper is a review of some of the foreign media coverage of the gas decree, written by the other half of The Democracy Center's gas and oil research team, Aaron Luoma. Here is the link to that paper.
In general, we think our readers will find that there has been a good deal of misinterpretation of the decree, with it being looked at as being far more radical that it actually is upon examination. For those interested in this issue, we encourage you to look at these papers and share the links with others following it. We hope that you find both papers valuable and look forward to your feedback and opinions.
The Democracy Center is dedicated to providing its readers with up to date and accurate analysis of this issue as it unfolds. For the past few weeks we have been working on two important briefing papers on the decree that are now posted on our Web site.
The first is a briefing paper on the decree and what it actually means in terms of concrete policy. That brief was written by Gretchen Gordon, a gas and oil researcher with The Democracy Center. Here is the link to the paper.
The second briefing paper is a review of some of the foreign media coverage of the gas decree, written by the other half of The Democracy Center's gas and oil research team, Aaron Luoma. Here is the link to that paper.
In general, we think our readers will find that there has been a good deal of misinterpretation of the decree, with it being looked at as being far more radical that it actually is upon examination. For those interested in this issue, we encourage you to look at these papers and share the links with others following it. We hope that you find both papers valuable and look forward to your feedback and opinions.
posted by The Democracy Center at 11:40 AM
The Democracy Center, based in Cochabamba Bolivia and San Francisco California, works globally to advance human rights through a combination of investigation and reporting, training citizens in the art of public advocacy, and organizing international citizen campaigns. If you like the Blog, consider becoming a subscriber to The Democracy Center's free e-newsletter by sending us an email at 
86 Comments:
Well gollee gee! Those silly misguided energy companies! Nationalization ain't nuthin' to worry about! Wonder why they aren't pouring more investment cash into this Evo "improvement" in the matter?
It must be the media.
The tail end of the first report says that investors should not worry because Bolivia has lots of abundant natgas resources that are easy to extract. But that begs the question. What's the point of extracting if a profit cannot be made? Energy companies are going to the Arctic Circle and the tar sands of Canada to extract, so how hard it is is not much of a factor for them. A favorable investment climate, where contracts actually mean something, tends to be more important.
What I love (/s) about this report is how the person who wrote it claimed that natgas companies can still make plenty of money, just not the exorbitant profits of the current day. Says who? Since when have controlled prices or controlled profits ever worked? Why should the person writing this paper set the prices or tell companies what is 'adequate' for energy companies' needs? (without dollar-amount specifics, just that vague stuff about earning 'enough.') Particularly since the writer (I don't even need to ask) has no experience running an energy company.
Is the writer of the paper even dimly aware of the long investment cycle inherent in any capital intensive energy industry? Oil at $70 a barrel can easily tumble to $9 a barrel any time, but fixed costs and investment costs remain constant. Same deal with natgas. Oil companies' average profits over decade-long periods are only about 4%-7%, and underperform those of the drug industry, the banking sector and other more profitable enterprises.
Long term, energy companies are not that profitable, despite what you might see in one or two quarters when commodity prices rise.
Personally, I would prefer to watch the energy companies' behavior for clues as to whether they can make a profit on the Evo plan or not. Right now, they don't seem to be as optimistic, chirpy, uncritical and pollyannish about it as the writer of the first paper. For some reason, they just don't seem to want to invest in Bolivia these days. Wonder why.
WOW! How one-sided and dogmatic can you guys be Jim? At least give some pretense of objectivity or scholarly rigor in reaching your conclusions.
Jeez, start with the fact that the paper side-steps the issue of the pensions. Repeating the tired mantra of the 18% roytalty, without including the general corporate tax, a tax on financial transactions - for funds sent abroad, and lastly there was a special surtax on profits.
And as pointed out already, a complete lack of understanding of the investments necessary to maintain production.
I went back through my blog and in about 15 minutes found the following posts that referred to the gas issue:
On whether the provisions of the decree were i. consistent with the law passed by congress ii. consistent with the questions submitted to the public and iii. constitutional.
http://bolicarreras.blogspot.com/2006/05/bolivia-is-nationalization-decree.html
on the consequences for the pensions system
http://bolicarreras.blogspot.com/2006/05/bolivia-did-evo-mas-loot-bolivias-old.html
On the pipeline project, citing sources
http://bolicarreras.blogspot.com/2005/05/bolivia-and-brazil-pipeline-and.html
lowering of investments.
http://bolicarreras.blogspot.com/2005/07/bolivia-gas-reserves-decrease-lower.html
Nice analysis anonymous, I may punch a couple holes into this paper (descriptibly: it's at best an article with indentations and at worst a simple press release - not the stuff I'd turn to a professor and claim academic or research proficiency) over the weekend; if other stuff doesn't keep me busy.
Feel free. One good paper to look at is ExxonMobil chief Lee Raymond's testimony to Congress in November, which explains this investment cycle out succinctly and perfectly. An additional bonus: no credible economist or analyst on Wall Street disagrees with him. The good thing about the Raymond testimony is its precision and brevity. I like people with minds like that.
My favorate part of Anon´s post was
"Oil at $70 a barrel can easily tumble to $9 a barrel any time, but fixed costs and investment costs remain constant. Same deal with natgas."
Give me a break! Do you honestly think gas is going to fall to $9 a barrel EVER? Oil is a finite resource -- whether or not you believe in particular peak oil theories, oil will never return to those prices.
And I love how you guys take the words of oil executives in good faith, as if they don´t have an interest in misrepresenting the structure of their business.
Yeah, that 9 bucks per barrel is an exaggeration, perhaps back to historical levels ($35-$40) if a number of planets align. In any case, the issue of "excessive profits" it's a though one to defend/define, during my last semester in college I had to write a paper and develop a formula for measuring excessive profits (for one of my finance classes). I used Exxon data on that one, including anecdotic evidence given in the testimony you mentioned. Ironically, the formula I developed concluded that Exxon had accrued excessive profits (beyond an optimal ROI for stockholders and a base period standard) of 3.366 percent or $1,139 million during 2005. Fun exercise, since I believe that the concept of excessive profits is essentially flawed. In any case, if I had trustworthy data on PDVSA and applied the formula to it, I’d probably reach a similar conclusion for that period.
Moral of the story, it’s hard to throw blanket statements when looking at oil companies. Don’t do it, unless you are willing and able to defend your arguments.
Whatever OE, the point was that price of oil and gas can go up and down. In the region, Brazil or Argentina can have a meltdown, and their currency goes to crap, and suddenly they can not pay for the volume in the contract.
The point made quite clearly by Anon, is that this whole silly article, is premised on a childish understanding of economic realities.
I'm also still waiting for you to post ANYTHING on the repurcusions of handing over control over the national pension system (the BONOSOL) to the newly empowered state oil company (the YPFB). Do you think the money will still be available for the elderly's pensions? Will the money be used for capital investments or to pay compensation for nationalized or "re-covered" stakes in oil industry? What is your take on it? So far I've not even seen this crucial element discussed on your site here--other than by a slew of comments that go unanswered.
correct me if i'm wrong, mcentellas, but the money transferred from the AFP's was only used to pay for the Bonosol as a bonus of Bolivias previous minority partnership in the capitalizadas.
the pension system, which predated privatization of course, was and continues to be administered by the AFP's, but has not been moved anywhere. so to ask whether the elderly's pensions will be honored is a loaded question, of course they will be, they are two separate things.
the question of whether this money will be spent productively or to pay international fines is valid I suppose, but it does betray a bitterness which I don't think we should have, wishing the best and not that an International court finds our sovereign actions taxable.
nonetheless, the answer as I recall was explained by several governmental authorities, is that the money previously in the FCC will mostly be used as collateral for loans. as in, hey, we are YPFB, we have X hundred million dollars in the bank, lend us money to find gas. pure, uncut capitalism.
alas, i am not jim so you question, by your standards, goes unanswered..
Hey CB, the GOB is not entitled to use that stock as collateral for anything, unless they compensate the fund. The whole operation was designed to keep the stock as the asset of the pension system, which was entitled to the dividends of the enterprise. And if any part of that stock was to be sold, the fund had to be compensated. It was precisely to stop any government from doing short-sited things.
Its like assigning clear title to a house in a trust, if the trustee, sells the house, you need to compensate the trust, or else you have effectively raided the trust.
Centellas point is clear.
http://bolicarreras.blogspot.com/2006/05/bolivia-did-evo-mas-loot-bolivias-old.html
Schultz, your paper is propaganda, badly written one at it.
Bolivia’s wholesale adoption of the “economic liberalization” policies of the so-called Washington Consensus, a package of market-driven reforms pushed on to Bolivia in the 1980s and 1990s as a condition of foreign aid. In 1993, the administration of President Gonzalo Sanchez de Lozada, with close participation by the World Bank and IMF, began the process of handing over Bolivia’s state-owned industries, including oil and gas to foreign corporations. ,
That statement is such a pack of lies, I do not know even where to start.
The way Sanchez De Lozada set up the capitalization plan, IT GOT AROUND THE IMF. That is why in lieu of payment for 50 percent of the stock, private investors had to commit to make x amount of investments and that the other 50 percent were held in trust by pension systems administered by world class institutions. That way there would be no excuse to make quick payments on IMF debt, and it was cleared off the Bolivian budget.
And this was not just Goni's thinking.
but before that just about anyone with half a brain, had figured out that the state needed private capital involvement in Yacimientos functions. They had already planned getting out of stupid functions already. They sold off the gas stations in 91 IIRC.
While we debate over NatGas issues in Bolivia I feel as if something is left out of the debate, a bit tangential, but never the less important – corruption and if Evo et al., can be transparent with the revenues.
Yes, fair to say that we, both sides of the argument, that the old contracts were crap and corrupt – but the corruption prior to the “privatization” was equally atrocious.
Along these lines, I did find certain statements that need to be expanded upon or explained.
While the former YPFB could be criticized for inefficiency, it was a solvent and financially stable company – contributing $3.5 billion to the national treasury between 1985 and 1995, between 38 and 60% of total government revenues.
I would like to be given the source on that one. To say the former YPFB was a solvent and financially stable company is a bit preposterous and naïve. How quickly was that money siphoned away?
I see little difference between corrupt governments looting their own banks and foreign/national taking money out of Bolivia. Either way the profits are not getting to where they are desperately needed.
So the question remains, How will the present Gov. handle the money? Can they be transparent? Or will the increase in revenue corrupt them like so many of their predecessors? If a new constitution is drafted how can they address corruption and its effects.
Bolivia, like many countries, has developed a culture of corruption, for individuals, to local alcaldeas, to business, to the federal government. If Bolivia cannot get a handle on corruption I fear that the NatGas issues will only fuel this fire.
Perhaps I should have been clear. Yes, there is a national pension system separate from the BONOSOL. But this is limited to worker contributions based (in large part) on wages earned during worker tenure in certain industries. This is separate from the BONOSOL.
What I'm curious about is the very very very loose language in the gas nationalization decree that handed over money from that trust (the money for the BONOSOL) over to the YPFB and clearly stating that it was now in YPFB prerogative. To my mind, this means that the executive decree states that the YPFB could, if it wanted to, at any time, use that money for pretty mucy anything.
Since the BONOSOL was money handed over in trust by the state for every single elderly Bolivian citizen -- most of whom do NOT have a pension -- this could potential hurt many of the poorest & most vulnerable in society (the elderly poor).
Since Jim & Co. frequently are critical of economic decisions made by previous governments (and they certainly have that right, and many such decisions need to be criticized), I'd like to see them at least tackle the question. Otherwise, they really can't shield themselves from accusations by others that their press reports are unbalanced or even propaganda.
To my mind, the BONOSOL question is a serious question. It's a question w/ serious policy implications, and implications for an entire section of the Bolivian population. Not addressing it makes for a serious journalistic blind spot.
fair enough. but i do think the clarification was necessary. I agree that Bonosol is very important, studies show that it has greatly helped entire families especially in rural areas, where a couple hundred dollars given to a grandmother triples the entire family's yearly income.
officially, the government has said it will continue paying-although i think they've been unclear about the amount- since this money is off the interest of FCC and the FCC as such will not be used as cash. we'll have to see what they do and hopefully people will speak up loudly if this isn't honored.
but we should also consider that the AFP's as private enterprises have not shown themselves to be the most incisive auditors or overseers of the companies for which they held Bolivia's stock in trust.
Agreed. I just wonder how an organization that claims to conduct "investigative journalism" and writes on a host of politica/economic/policy issues hasn't even bothered to address the issue. Jim hasn't even answered my email on the subject ... If the Democracy Center wants to be a PR organization that advocates a position, that's fine. But avoiding an issue is usually considered a form of "spin" inside the beltway. If they want to do that, rather than objective, investigative journalism (which is their right, of course) they should at least be upfront about it.
Just to note that Jim has emailed me. While he hasn't promised to write on the question of the implications for the BONOSOL (he hasn't ruled it out, either), he's at least well aware of the requests.
I can appreciate that any blogger (or organization) can post on any topic (or not post on any topic) as he/she/they see fit. But blogging has, in my mind, become a means of "informing conversation", rather than a means of "information distribution" (the first derives from a horizontal component, the second a hierarchical one). So I don't think the Democracy Center has a pass on issues they haven't gotten around to yet, even if other issues are also important. Readers have a right to demand coverage of anyone, and I think it's just good policy to respond (even if it's to say "I disagree" or "we won't be covering that yet").
Here are some figures provided by SPVS from its web site:
They issued monthly newsletters
http://www.spvs.gov.bo/Estadisticas+y+Publicaciones/Publicaciones/
http://www.spvs.gov.bo/NR/rdonlyres/953FE3DB-DEE5-4C44-946E-A6B2B5792DD6/3477/UtilidadesgeneradasporlasEmpresasCapitalizadasAl31.pdf
Direct dividends paid to Fondo:
http://www.spvs.gov.bo/NR/rdonlyres/D00236F7-36C9-4ED3-B5BE-AFF9FADAFF78/3478/DividendosPagadosalFCCAl310506.pdf
BONOSOL Payments
http://www.spvs.gov.bo/NR/rdonlyres/D7BADF6E-B2D1-4E93-A233-71ACBDA08A2E/3367/Pagos_BONOSOL_20060531.pdf
There is quite a bit of info there.
I have looked at too many investment portfolio's, account sheets and SEC filings in my lifetime, don't feel like looking at one today - for free that is.
One last thing..for some ungodly reason I had to read MAS campaign Bible...
Interesting what they were saying some months ago:
En el caso de Transredes, se transferirá las acciones del Fondo de Capitalización Colectiva (FCC) de los bolivianos, al Estado nacional. Éste comprará las acciones de los trabajadores y adquirirá uno por ciento de las acciones en manos de las empresas extranjeras. De esta manera el Estado nacional tendrá el 51% del paquete accionario. Además ejercerá el derecho de propiedad mediante la nominación de los directores y síndicos que representan los intereses nacionales, quienes participarán activamente en los niveles de decisión.
Last time I checked..buying the "workers shares" meant....well not taking them without payment.
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