The Hugo Factor

Yesterday afternoon, while watching Brazil douse Australia 2-0 on a wide screen TV on the Prado, I got my first TV look at the red vs. blue teams going after one another in that other big competition of the moment, Bolivia’s July 2 national elections for a Constituent Assembly. That vote will determine who will sit at the table to re-write the nation’s constitution and it is turning into a “how do we feel” six month referendum on the Morales presidency as well.

“Hugo Chavez is gonna get your Momma!”

The “red team” in this case is PODEMOS, the political party set up by former President “Tuto” Quiroga, who finished a distant second to Morales in December. PODEMOS’ ads, both on TV and in the newspapers, can be described in an easy phrase, “Hugo Chavez is gonna get your Momma!”

“Chavez’ Troops Sweep Bolivia,” reads the headline over a full-page ad in Sunday’s Los Tiempos. The same menacing photo of Chavez in a red beret holding an assault rifle runs in the PODEMOS TV ads as well. The ads warn that Venezuelan troops have arrived on Bolivian soil. Chavez came to Bolivia to help MAS launch its campaign, PODEMOS declares. “In the Constituent Assembly we will defend the red, yellow and green [the colors of the Bolivian flag] and we will not allow the insertion of Chavez or his military.”

Since World Cup soccer does not allow the same every-ten-minutes opportunity for TV ads as US football (imagine watching a championship match for the game and not the ads!) PODEMOS paid to have the Bolivian game announcer add an occasional voiceover as the yellow shirts of Brazil menaced the black shirts of the Aussies: “For a sovereign country, PODEMOS.”

As someone who has worked on a lot of political campaigns over the years, I am willing to bet that Quiroga and PODEMOS did a little polling and focus group work in preparation for their ad campaign and I suspect they found out the following:

1. Their best shot at improving their disappointing 29% showing in November (MAS won 54%) is to go after some of the middle class voters who supported Morales last time around.

2. The best shot they have to woo those middle class voters back from MAS is to make great hay out of Morales links to Chavez.

3. Showing Quiroga’s face around is what Playboy Magazine used to call “a turnoff”.

I am guessing the latter because, two weeks before the election, trying to find any sighting of Quiroga, either in ads or in the news is a lot like trying to find bagels and cream cheese in “la cancha” (the marketplace), mana canchu, no hay, there isn’t any.

In contrast Morales is all over the MAS ads. Even Samuel Doria Medina, the Burger King and cement magnate who came in an even more disappointing third place (8%) finish in December, shines his bearded face on most all of his party’s (UN) billboards and ads.

The Invader in the Red Beret vs. the One Dressed in Red, White and Blue

I have no doubt that shouting “Hugo” is a good political strategy for POEMOS and the invisible Quiroga. It is roughly the equivalent of George W. Bush trying to see how many times he could insert the numbers "9/11" into his 2004 campaign speeches.

The Chavez card worked nicely for Alan Garcia in the Peruvian elections earlier this month and it has succeeded in helping whittle down the once formidable lead of the left candidate for President in Mexico as well. To be clear, Morales has certainly wrapped himself tight in Chavez’s arms – by being joined at the hip in one press event after another, and by ratcheting up Venezuelan/Bolivian economic ties.

I also can’t comment with any authority about the Venezuelan troops charge. But what I understand is that Chavez brought in a legion of troops to protect and accompany him on his recent visit with Morales to the Chapare. He left behind the same frustrated complaints of, “How many body guards does that guy need?” after his presence at Morales’ January inaugural.

All that said, let’s just have a little look at this question of “sovereignty” and where Quiroga and PODEMOS stand.

While PODEMOS now cries “sovereignty” in the face of ramped up Venezuelan economic aid and cooperation, Quiroga was Vice-President and Vice-President in one of a string of Bolivian governments that essentially turned over the nation’s economic policies to planers and economists at the World Bank and IMF. Those policies produced such stellar results for the Bolivian people that last December voters virtually obliterated those traditional parties from the political map. Quiroga himself was part of the government that handed over Cochabamba’s water to the Bechtel Corporation and he later defended the move, even after a citywide rebellion ousted the company.

While PODEMOS and Quiroga now issue warnings about Venezuelan troops on Bolivian soil, they don’t seem to be upset with the scores of US troops that have been a presence here for decades. I haven’t heard them complain about that armed US Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) fortress on Calle Americas, a place encased with enough black iron fencing that it looks like Darth Vader’s vacation home. My favorite “war on drugs” irony is that one of the Bolivian guards who protects the DEA building on the midnight shift chews a wad of coca to stay awake.

I never heard PODEMOS or Quiroga complain once about Bolivian drug prosecutors who received, for years, a salary bonus directly from the US government (greater than their civil servant pay) and who put thousands of innocents in jail to keep the US Embassy cheerful. Morales’ government, wisely, has ended those bonuses.

There is plenty of room to be nervous about what Chavez wants from his new coziness with Bolivia. And there is plenty of wisdom involved in asking questions about what kind of political and economic links benefit Bolivia. Too bad that isn’t what PODEMOS is doing.

Okay, But What About the New Constitution?

Meanwhile the blue team, MAS, has a clear strategy as well, Evo, Evo and more Evo. His picture adorns all the ads and brochures. To MAS’ credit, those ads also trumpet MAS’ “Ten Proposals to Re-found Bolivia.” While pretty general, MAS’ ten points at least speak to some of the issues on the table: a multi-cultural and democratic society; political decentralization; the armed forced should respect human rights; the state should guarantee health care and education for everyone; Bolivia will recovery its economic sovereignty, etc.

Judging from the PODEMOS ads we might expect the party to limit its constitutional agenda to a new provision stating: “Bolivia is not a part of Venezuela and they guy in the red beret should stay home (and his soldiers, teachers and doctors too). Oh yeah, and maybe his money, we’ll see.”

Certainly buried in there are some worthwhile debatable points, but it would be nice if the election were also about, say, the nation’s economic future as well.

All this just shows, more than anything else, that Bolivian election politics is really a lot like politics everywhere. When your leader is popular, wrap yourself in his image. When he’s not, pretend you forgot his name (as in the current US Republican refrain, George W. Who?) and talk about something else. Hugo Chavez in Bolivia. Immigrants in the US.

By the way, none of this made any difference to the Brazilians and Australians on the street yesterday. The yellow and green drank beer and drove around waving flags and honking their horn. The Aussies retreated to a bar and did some drinking of their own, just more quietly. And despite its loss to Switzerland yesterday, my money is still on the mighty players from Togo to pull it out.