New Bolivian Elections in 2008?

Last week the MAS government made a statement that the Constituent Assembly, meeting in Sucre to debate the elements of a new national constitution, would have to decide if that new constitution would include new national elections in 2008. Now to be sure, it is unclear to me that the Constituent Assembly will actually ever produce a new constitution, and much less what will be in it.

But, even the remote possibility of another round of national elections (these would be the third in six years) has set Bolivian politicians off in a wild dance of trying to position themselves.

Quiroga and PODEMOS – Not Ready for Prime Time

The distant second place finisher in the December 2005 elections, Tuto Quiroga and PODEMOS, are definitely not happy campers about the possibility of a new vote next year. Quiroga quickly announced his opposition to the idea and then added that, if it does happen, President Morales should be required to resign if he wants to run (The current Bolivian Constitution does not allow a standing President to run for reelection, but MAS clearly wants to change that.). Quiroga's resistance to the 2008 elections is not very hard to figure out. PODEMOS is in disarray; it faces a host of new rivals as lead opponent to Morales; and is about as ready to face the electorate again as an egg is ready to face an oncoming car tire.

Doria Medina and UN – Anything is better than 4.3%

The third place finisher in 2005, Samuel Doria Medina and the UN party, on the other hand, is excited and ready to go. When your last national vote tally was 4.3% (the July 2006 vote electing members to the Constituent Assembly) you have nowhere to go but up. The owner of Bolivia's Burger King restaurants assuredly sees a new vote as a chance to rise above the UN's current political status – roughly akin to that of a neglected French fry.

Manfred Reyes Villa – No Word from the New Opposition

So far I have seen no public word from the political camp of Manfred Reyes Villa. But a source within the prefectura told me that the people around the Cochabamba governor have been preparing for weeks for a possible new national vote in 2008. Reyes Villa jumped into national politics in December by allying himself with civic leaders from Santa Cruz and the other eastern departments, in his call for a 2/3 vote on all the separate sections of a new constitution and saying he would seek a revote on autonomy in Cochabamba. That move set in motion the chain of events (including the takeover of the city center by MAS backers) that led to bloodshed here in January and according to one poll, cost Reyes Villa a third of his popular support.

MAS – New Challenges

With the opposition on the right in political disarray and with Morales still enjoying strong popular support (64% in a recent poll), one might expect that a revote in 2008 would put Morales and MAS in a strong position. However, two factors are likely to threaten any vision that MAS has that a new vote would leave the party and Morales better off.

First, in December 2005 MAS had the political left all to itself at the ballot box, the product of skilled negotiation by Morales' running mate, Vice President Alvaro Garcia Linera. MAS repeated its dominance on the left in the Constituent Assembly vote six months later, thanks to a deal with PODEMOS that essentially eliminated all possibility that MAS critics in the social movements could qualify for the Asamblea ballot. But Morales's former mentor and ally, Filemon Escobar (also a former MAS Senator) has formed an alliance with Potosi Mayor Rene Joaquino (who, like Morales, is indigenous) under the banner, "Alianza Social" (Social Alliance). Morales and MAS would still be dominant on the left, but not alone like last time. It should be noted, however, that the Potosi Mayor also tried to launch a candidacy in 2005, one that fizzled out before it began.

Second, Morales and MAS are going to find it harder than before to hang onto the middle class support that help them trounce their nearest opponents 2-1 two elections in a row. In July 2006 PODEMOS ran a campaign that was All Hugo Chavez. Menacing photos of the Venezuelan President in a red beret were many times more common in PODEMOS ads than images of Tuto Quiroga, the party's leader. In July 2006 fear fell flat on its face as a campaign tactic, but today the middle class is much more nervous about Morales and MAS. While no opposition candidate has been able yet to convert that into public support for themselves, the ground is fertile and my bet is that Manfred Reyes Villa will head right for it if he runs.

Of course, in the end, this is all speculation, a convenient distraction for Bolivian politicians and political junkies. The most likely scenario is that there will be no new elections at all in 2008. But beware, I am also the skilled seer of the future who wrote in July 2005: I think that Evo has about as much chance of becoming President of Bolivia after next December’s elections as I have of being Bush’s pick for the US Supreme Court.

I gotta go, Justice Roberts says I keep holding things up.