Questions of Competency
I got another dose of it again recently. Take a Bush Administration official and give him or her the rhetorical shield of "off the record", or a private conversation, and you get dripping condescension attacking the competency of the Morales government.Now let's be clear, the Morales government has offered up a pretty steady stream of examples to make the case. The government's leadership of its gas and oil nationalization efforts looks at times like a game of musical chairs at my four-year-old's birthday party. The government can't seem to get dented yellow gas tanks out in sufficient numbers to households, in a country lousy with the stuff. The newly established Ministry of Water is a complete mess and has spit out a host of talented Bolivian professionals who went there with good intent and strong skills. I am sure critics of Morales will take great glee in offering up other examples as well.
But let's be equally clear about something else. Being called incompetent by the Bush Administration is like, to use an old phrase, "being called ugly by a frog." Here are some questions that might be reasonable to ask Bush Administration critics of the Morales government:
1. How would you compare the level of incompetence in the Morales government, and its effects, with the Bush Administration's performance in its invasion of Iraq?
2. Where in the first year of the Morales government do you find the equivalent of tens of thousands and perhaps hundreds of thousands Iraqis dead? The Bush Administration, even though it unleashed the violence, can't even give us an accurate number for those killed.
3. Where in the last year in Bolivia do you see the equivalent of more than 3,000 dead US soldiers? The Bush Administration has now sent more Americans to their deaths in Iraq than Al Qaeda did with hijacked airliners on 9/11.
The same Bush administration attitude can be seen in its 193-country human rights report released last week. Ample criticism for everyone else (much of it accurate) but no mention of Guantanamo or Abu Ghraib. Where in the last year in Bolivia does the Bush Administration see the equivalent of the US Government-hosted torture in those places?
Even the Administration's diplomacy toward Bolivia has hardly been stellar.
In October 2003, after a weekend massacre in the altiplano by the government of Gonzalo Sanchez de Lozada (during the gas revolt), that included the shooting of children, even his own Vice President, Carlos Mesa broke with Goni over the violence. But both the US Embassy and the State Department made bold declarations afterwards to keep Goni in office another week. Those who died during that time can look to the Bush Administration for the favor.
And here is my point.
People make mistakes (me too, big ones).
Government's made up of people (which includes most all of them) make mistakes.
The worst mistakes are not made through incompetence, but arrogance, by the attitude that we are right and have no real need to listen to those who might think otherwise.
The Bush Administration, wrapped in an arrogance of borrowed red, white and blue, will be remembered by history as the author of – to use a phrase from the Middle East – "The Mother of all Screw Ups" with a price in blood and purse so high that it is almost unfathomable.
Humility. Morales and MAS need it. The Bush Administration needs it. The Democracy Center needs it. We all need it. And when it is absent from those who have power, in a small country or especially in a large one, the results can be a disaster.
posted by The Democracy Center at 10:59 AM
The Democracy Center, based in Cochabamba Bolivia and San Francisco California, works globally to advance human rights through a combination of investigation and reporting, training citizens in the art of public advocacy, and organizing international citizen campaigns. If you like the Blog, consider becoming a subscriber to The Democracy Center's free e-newsletter by sending us an email at 
39 Comments:
Good post Jim, couldn’t agree with you more.
Fellow readers, sorry if I take you away from this thread for a moment, but I recently finished reading the DC’s “Deadly Consequences” report on the IMF in Bolivia (the link is on the “Volunteer & Internship Openings” post a few days ago) & was mightily impressed with it. One of Jim’s best yessir, it would be a shame if it was overlooked by the rest of us.
A fine analysis of the topic, free of ideology or rhetoric, I’d particularly recommend it to those of you who are skeptical about the notion that Bolivia should be exploring new avenues for the future.
And don’t worry if you’re a convinced free-marketeer or neo-liberalist, there’s nothing in it to make you abandon your beliefs! Just an appraisal, shall we say, of how those IMF folk in Washington work & the impact this has on our everyday lives.
It’s 30 or so pages, worth printing & reading at your leisure.
For those who can’t find the time, or would like a summary of the report’s findings using say a free-market metaphor; the picture you have is quite simply of an ineffective organization, that were it to be a company competing in an open market would have died a sad death a long time ago.
Some examples:
1. 90% of its staff based at HQ, & only 10% actually on the market
2. offering only one product with no possibility for customization, classic black Ford Model T status if ever I saw it
3. selling an obsolete product (80’s-style monetary policy) not much in demand in the market now, & never really in vogue in countries that have successfully developed (post-war Germany, Japan, Korea, Taiwan, China, India etc)
4. zero R&D, zero new product development, zero asking your customers what products they need, just keep churning out them black Model T’s…
Wow, it’s amazing they got this far…
Jack
I like the bit about humility, Jim.
Remember, however, that the ugliness of the frog has no bearing on the truth or falsity of the ugly frog's accusations.
Take for instance, Al Gore's blatant inconsistency between what he teaches and how he lives. Yes, pointing to his extreme hypocrisy may prove that he is a smug elitist who thinks only the hoi polloi need change their ways to save the earth, but his (often hilarious) phoniness proves nothing with respect to the question of global warming.
Still, your point is taken. Better to live above reproach so as to not make ourselves vulnerable to the all-too-common "you too!" rebuttal.
Jack, I am sure that there are many things wrong with the IMF and WB and many of their practices should be improved, but I am still convinced that, at least in the case of Bolivia, the main causes of its endless inability to function as a country are found more in internal factors and not in the imposition of certain economic policies from abroad.
It is easy to bash the IMF and the WB in a moment when the prices of commodities are at an all time high and the coffers are full of dollars and euros which can be carelessly spent in popular and effective ways to keep the population living in a false sense of prosperity (screw the IMF…who needs them!!). The problem comes later, when the unavoidable reality of the economic cycle sinks in, prices of commodities drop again and the coffers are emptied. That is when the “ogres” suddenly begin to look nice again at the eyes of the desperate bureaucrats who don’t know how to cool down the fires they have created with their irresponsible, populist, inept and CORRUPT acts of government. In Bolivia every government from the right, the center and the left are guilty of this practice. They borrow money joyfully again and again to go on with this endless vicious cycle. And the idiots at the IMF want them not to spend more than what they receive from taxes.. What a “bummer”!!
It is important to mention that much of the deficit problem that Bolivia had to face during that period (and probably why the IMF was needed so badly to begin with) was generated by the auto destructive and anti democratic way that Evo Morales and his thugs blocked the main highways of the country during months at a time paralyzing the economy. This practice was carried out year after year and lead to the fall of 3 democratically elected governments. No country can survive the economic devastation that arises when its main connections with the world are cut for months at a time by a band of mercenaries.
The DC’s report uses the very tragic deaths of Ana Colque and the worker who went back to get his tools in a very effective way to try to convey that there was a sate policy of repression against the poor but anyone who has lived in Bolivia knows that this is simply was not true. Others have detailed all the other factors that came together to produce the state of revolt and the consequent attempt to re-establish order by the armed forces during those truly tragic circumstances.
It’s always easy to point a finger at someone or something… but we must always remember that for each finger pointing away there are three fingers pointing toward ourselves. Bolivia needs to stop pointing at others in order to find solutions to their problems.
Update… In a previous comment a couple of weeks ago, I mentioned that Bolivia was not a good example to use in order to attack the role of the multilateral lending institutions because it is the only country in South America that has repeatedly “qualified” as a recipient of debt reductions and eliminations from these institutions.
Yesterday, the BID eliminated 1 billion dollars from Bolivia’s debt as part of a debt relief package that also includes a few other countries in Central America. This is in addition of the 500 million received from Japan last week. That makes 1.5 BILLION in 2 weeks! This represents aprox. 15% of Bolivia’s GDP. Again, I insist in the fact that it is not by playing the blaming game that the country will walk towards prosperity and order.
I’d recommend the DC to move to another country where its chances of making its point against the “malicious” IMF, WB, BID, etc.. are minimally present.
Well said Pascal's Revenge,
The Bush goverment might be the worst goverment on earth but that doesnt make the Morales' goverment any better
Interesting post Justo.
I fully agree with you on some points, such as that a lot of Bolivia’s problems are the result of its own making, its misguided, inept or plain corrupt governments. And that it’s futile Bolivians blaming others for all their ills. But there’s other points I didn’t get, & you tie things together in a way that I don’t think is quite right.
First, the DC report didn’t suggest that the IMF was the source of all Bolivia’s problems. Or that the IMF was a dastardly devilish institution. It didn’t say that Bolivia should turn its back – or “screw” - the IMF Justo. It didn’t actually even question the motives of the IMF’s work for Bolivia.
What it did do was simply have a look at how the IMF operates, & the impact this has on your life & everyone else’s in Bolivia. You didn’t like the conclusions it drew or simply the fact that the DC bothered – or dared - to have a look at this issue? I dunno, Justo, only you know the answer to that one. You sound like a bright fella & reason some things well, so I’ll guess that quite simply you get irritated that criticism of the IMF can lead some less bright people than you into thinking “well let’s screw the IMF then, Bolivia doesn’t need them & they’re just a bunch of thieving capitalist bastards anyway”. Which ain’t true Justo, I agree. Bolivia needs the IMF, the World Bank, the US & a whole bunch of other folk from outside.
But Justo, precisely because Bolivia needs them, it needs to be aware of how they operate, the impact dealings with them has on the country. And Bolivia also has the right to consider how best to manage these various relationships to its own benefit. If simply pretending that the IMF is & always has been a heaven-sent mannah that will solve all your problems is the way to go in your opinion Justo (& I don’t think it is, I hope..) OK, but it ain’t mine.
You know, one thing that gets me is that the questioning by Bolivia of some foreign institutions, or governments, or simply the ways of doing things with these folk, seems to get some people’s back up. Like it was desecrating some holy shrine Justo. Like if you dare to question something, anything, about the IMF or the WB or the US or half a million other things it must mean to some people in Bolivia that you’re a commie, or some weird kind of indio-lover or other undesirable type of person that will want to steal a cruceno taxi driver’s house, rape a cochambinan teacher’s wife & eat a shopkeeper in Trinidad’s children. Now I’m sure you’re not that type of person Justo, you probably don’t think that way at all. But even before we get to these extremes there’s still a lot of ideology, a lot of cobwebs in many people’s mindsets, a lot of reading other things into what one says that maybe simply aren’t there. I’ve said it before Justo, Bolivia is a teenage in political terms, actually I reckon just now turned thirteen, probably not a day older. And in this phase of life, that’s when questions have to be made, things attempted, explored, mistakes made. For Bolivia, that means questioning, looking at everything, the IMF, WB, its relationships with other countries, political & economic systems, & finding its own way. I thought the DC’s report did that in a way, you know..
I digress though.
About your claim that it’s easy to talk up now against the IMF whilst commodity prices are up & the government can spend wildly creating “a false sense of prosperity”, & as soon as the down-cycle happens Bolivia will be back begging at the IMF’s door, I’m not sure what you mean. First, I’m not sure what the “false sense of prosperity” you think the Bolivian people are feeling is exactly. What, are there hundreds of Ferraris suddenly popping up in the rural villages of Oruro & Potosi? In El Alto? Maybe you confused it with a “sense of hope” the many poor finally have? That things might finally get better for them?...
Second, like I already said, no-one’s suggesting Bolivia should send the IMF packing. The IMF is one of the important sources of funding Bolivia has available. Let’s use it, but yes let’s use it as well as we can. And from the little I’ve been able to figure out about the IMF, it sounds like it’s a key source of financing, that does however need to be managed carefully by a poor & fragile country like Bolivia. Why? Because, their priority – in practice if not also in intention – appears to be to promote the adoption of monetary policy & balance of payments as a way of running an economy. What this means, for non-economists, is keeping a tight grip on government spending, on inflation particularly, on balancing your budgets before & above anything else you do. Is this wrong? Well, no, it’s actually an important part of running a healthy economy. And probably, like you say, also a sensible policy for a lender to adopt, if just to make sure he’s keeping tabs on the likelihood of getting his money back.
But, as any critic of monetary policy will tell you (& there are lots out there, actually as I’m sure you know monetary policy is not at all in vogue these days) control of inflation & monetary supply, shouldn’t be the be all & end all of running an economy. And in a country that needs to develop, to grow, tight monetary policy is actually very rarely used. It’s a non-starter almost. Look at Japan, Germany (or the whole of the “Marshall Planned” Europe, which incidentally goes from Norway to Turkey..), Korea, China, India etc – these economies were rebuilt using some type of Keynesian economic policy, with lots of spending & investment, the government building the business sector, import tariffs, protectionism, the whole lot. Where monetary policy has actually worked it’s been to kickstart again an already strong & developed economy – such as Reagan’s US or Thatcher’s UK in the 80’s – & to kickstart it by letting the inefficient companies & parts of the economy die a death, & get the resources diverted into new ones that can make money in a newly thriving open market. Hence, the disappearance of a lot of heavy industry in Ohio, Illinois (what is now called the “rust belt” in the Midwest), & much of Britain’s mining, shipping & manufacturing companies - in return for which though these two countries have developed efficient financial & service sectors.
Is Bolivia in the right condition for adopting monetary policy Justo? Branching into banking, insurance, software services? I think not my friend.. Let’s try to build a couple of erm maybe factories there first…
The second problem with IMF funding for Bolivia, which the DC’s report also explained well, is that with this tight monetary policy when the going gets tough you get mightily squeezed. Why? Because in the bad times your income goes down, so the only way you can balance things is by spending less. Now for a poor & fragile country like Bolivia there’s a bigger risk of that happening (the economy is smaller, less developed & less diversified) & the impact when that happens is a lot bigger (for the same reasons). So big, that in a desperate attempt to get more income the government has so few options available that it (stupidly, & this wasn’t the IMF’s fault, just a very bad government policy decision) can even decide to levy taxes on people so poor that they come out on the streets in protest & actually real pissed about things, you get the police against the army (wow!), tanks on Plaza Murillo, & nurses getting shot mistaken for snipers etc etc.
Actually, if you read the report you’ll know that the situation was worse than that, that the desperation to find new income – which led to the raising of the income taxes - came about because there were not many alternatives. Bolivia couldn’t even privatize or sell off its assets to raise some money for example. Why? Because it had already done that to try to help pay off the debt in the 90’s! And it hadn’t worked. In fact it turned out so bad that, for example, when before Bolivia was getting 50% income on its gas, after privatization it was getting just 20%!
Was that the IMF’s fault? Well, not entirely. But, & it’s a BIG but Justo… the situation Bolivia had found itself in 2003 was the result of following IMF recommendations, to privatize etc. Sure, the Bolivian government had a part of the blame too, if they had to privatize they should presumably have done so at better terms (if that was possible, & remember that maybe is easier to say than do, as companies investing in Bolivia have usually got way better deals than the Bolivian state…). But what’s the reality for a poor country, that has never really shown itself able to adopt its own economic policy, one that works, one that is Made IN Bolivia FOR Bolivia BY Bolivians, & doesn’t just toe the line of some economist that has probably never been there?
Well, the reality is that you have a big debt, you need more money from the IMF, you already sold everything you have, you have crappy income, you never tried anything different before, you can’t show any results from having tried to do something different, to the eyes of many in the IMF & the world at large you’re just a shitty third world country with inept & corrupt leaders & always have been, you’re sitting with the IMF to discuss a new plan, these guys are still adamant that you need more monetary policy, that Ford Model T that no-one else buys any more & no-one ever did to develop… Justo, do you really think that in this situation it’s so easy to convince the IMF to give you more money based on some new different plan you have? I think not my friend, in the best case they might say, ok we’ll consider your proposal & come back to you, you have more meetings, the weeks & months go by, the interest due on your debt keeps increasing, your problem gets bigger & bigger, even if your idea had an outside chance of working before, it probably can’t now Justo, you’re ever more screwed… ever more in need of the IMF… ever more in deep water & just plain unable to meet their conditions to get you bailed out… ever more screwed Justo. Talk about un perro que se muerde la cola..
Sad, sad, so damn sad… The blame? I dunno, it’s just such a sad story. In fact so very damn sad that it’s not surprising no-one, even at the IMF, wants to carry even a small part of the can for the way things turned out…
Anyhow, back to you & your points Justo. That the Bolivian government is spending wildly to dupe its electorate is, excuse me for saying so, a somewhat wild assertion. It’s actually got a BUDGET SURPLUS this year for the first time since 1970 if I’m not mistaken! Also, have a look if you like at The Economist, whose biggest reservation about Evo’s policies so far has actually been the INSUFFICIENT amount of government investment, in spending for projects that wow could actually dare I say it actually even build wealth in future. They keep making this point over & over, seems no-one’s listening though..
And actually, most important of all I guess, Evo has since coming into office HALVED the country’s foreign debt! Sure, thanks also to important debt relief packages from abroad, credit where credit’s due & thankyou very much Japan & BID (who are not the IMF by the way & don’t hawk the same monetary policy dogma). But that’s missing the point I reckon. Bolivia has always had a sizeable debt (& no Justo it wasn’t created by Evo in a couple of years of protests a few years ago). See, Bolivia has also always had REALLY MEAGER INCOME TO PAY THE DEBT OFF. That’s two separate problems that together each make the other worse. And Justo, the other part of Bolivia’s debt reduction… well, guess what it’s come from VASTLY improving income from the few sources Bolivia has available right now, gas & minerals. Evo did that Justo, not Goni or Tuto or Banzer, not anyone before them. Changing the returns from 20% to 80%... jeez.
You know what, I’m quoting from memory here so could be wrong, but to give you an idea of the relative contributions to Bolivia’s debt improvement well, as to the BID & Japan, I dunno when these loans were taken out, how often these folk give out debt relief to Bolivia, but let’s grant a very generous every 5 years term, that means their US$1,5 billion relief is worth US$300k a year to Bolivia. Well, just from gas, Evo’s government took in US$ 1 billion more last year than in 2005, they’re expecting 1,5 billion this year, rising to over US$2 billion annually… well, if these figures are right Bolivia can count on say at least US$1,5 billion annually (five times the value of the BID’s debt relief) extra just from gas compared to what they were getting before Justo. Wooooow!!!.
Just because some ex-trumpeter coca farmer from the Chapare dared to question, dared to look into how things were being done, dared to try to negotiate some better deals… The same daring & questioning, my friend, that could be used to re-examine how to get the IMF to work better for Bolivia, for example…
Back to your “happy-spending” issue though. Justo, Evo’s government isn’t spending nearly enough to get Bolivia moving, believe me. The country’s screaming for roads, bridges, railways, factories, warehouses, better schools & hospitals the whole shebang, & instead of opening a thousand construction sites all over the country for this new infrastructure Bolivia’s not spending much at all & instead the country’s debt is just falling & falling.
Why Justo? I’m not sure, but I can hazard a few guesses. First, I guess it’s early days yet, this is not the right time to come to any conclusions about the government, they’ve only been in for a year, & got a heap of things they’re trying to sort out. Takes time buddy. Second? Well, maybe Evo wants to keep working on reducing the debt, to be able to operate more freely in future, or simply to be able to negotiate better terms with lenders? Not a dumb idea probably.. Third, hmm, maybe it’s down partly to inexperience, whole load of new guys in new jobs, who suddenly found themselves in power working on the run to deal with a zillion different requests. Boy, maybe it’s unreasonable to expect everything to be sorted out perfectly & immediately, in line with The Economist’s or anyone else’s recipe for success. Fourthly, maybe, I think it could also be partly (& hope it’s the case) a question of wanting to ensure things are done right. Hey, when the money’s rolling in it’s easy for any type of even ludicrous project to pop up just as a way of justifying the spending of the money (tell me about it, I live in Italy… can send you a ton of pictures of half-built motorways, bridges & hospitals lying in the middle of nowhere in the mezzogiorno). Or good projects come up that haven’t yet been planned or scheduled or designed right, or that have the right people skilled & contracted to deliver or administer them. It can take time before setting things up right in Bolivia Justo, the roads & bridges don’t appear overnight. Personally I’d be happier to wait a bit more to make sure the projects are done right, that they’re not just used to spend cash or divert funds into corrupt or incapable hands…
The down-cycle you mention? Sure, it may come some time Justo. But forgive me if I sound optimistic, the world economy is not now what it was even 30 years ago, with only the US & Europe hungry for raw materials. You know the story, they take a dip & the whole world takes a dip. It’s different now Justo. BRIC but not only BRIC nations, HUGE MASSIVE economies the size of which we’ve never seen before are now jacking up their development. What we’re seeing now is just the start, they’re gonna need GYNORMOUS amounts of energy & minerals to get their countries set up. Oil, gas, iron, steel, copper, tin, you name it, they need it.
Sure, there could be a downturn for some companies, sectors, countries, maybe even whole regions every once in a while. But Justo, oil & gas, these are finite resources, demand is at an all-time high & will only grow further, maybe exponentially as the new giants develop. Heck call me a dummy if you like but I think that even if & when an economic downturn occurs, demand for these items will always be pretty solid. From somewhere, there’ll always be someone wanting to buy them… So, no; I don’t think the down-cycle you’re so worried about is just lurking around the corner…
In this context Justo it’s, I dunno, it’s hard to find a term strong enough to describe it, let’s just say plain f**king madness for those who have these resources (like Bolivia) not to be getting ready to get the best deals for them possible. Particularly if they’re piss-poor countries that have pretty much no other alternatives for the time being..
And I don’t think that daring to find new business partners, doing business with the Indians, the Chinese, the Brazilians, & Argentinians – instead of always each and every damn time the US say - is a bad way of going about it. Do business too with the US by all means, it’s a very big economy sure, with Europe yes, with Mexico, & why not with Venezuela too. What’s the problem with that? Hey, the more customers you have the less exposed you are to risk if & when any one of these dips! Wonder of wonders! Hey, get someone to come half way round the world & invest US$2 – 2,5 billion in building your first steel plant so you can actually sell them something Made In Bolivia! Hey, take your only tin smelter back if it was pocketed by one of your ex-presidents! Hey, sell your gas to Brazil & Argentina who by the way are just next door (from Santa Cruz by the way..) instead of dreaming up some idea to pipe & ship it across Bolivia, over the Andes, into Chile & the Pacific & then up to California! Hey, ask the Brazilians to pay for what they’re actually getting, at much better prices, and charge them an even higher price for the richer hydrocarbons. Do the same with the Argentinians! Why not? Hey, why not try selling coca shampoo too, who knows it might work, you won’t know till you try & it’s better than just sitting on one’s ass complaining about things.
Why my ranting Justo? Well, because if someone not very well-informed, or badly advised, reads your post they might, you see, get the mistaken idea that the finger-pointing you mention was directed at Evo’s government. That it’s them who should get up off their asses, stop moaning, & actually do something useful for the country. When actually Justo, you & me we both know I think that if there’s one government in Bolivia that hasn’t just limited itself to pointing its fingers at others, that has actually tried to do things in a new way, it’s Evo’s! Sure, they may say dumb things sometimes (who doesn’t?), do dumb things other times & yup they’ll continue making probably fairly regularcock-ups, but Justo…. they’re doing things that should have been done a long time ago, & no-one dared to or maybe even thought about doing before.
And that’s the same daring, the same questioning, the same trying things out that Bolivia has to do with the IMF & everybody else my friend. What sweet irony Justo, a trumpeter comes out of the jungles of the Chapare & starts showing us bilingual, university-educated oh-so sophisticated culitos paliditos how to go about things. And we’re just stuck with our mouths open, saying no, you’re doing that wrong, you shouldn’t question that, or this, we can’t try that coz it’s not the way we used to do things before, let’s just stick to the old ways, oh if you got some result it’s just coz you’re lucky, wait for the bad times they’re gonna screw you & prove that I’m right…
Now this got waaay longer than I intended, I probably lost you a long way back. But, just in case not, one parting question if I may. I don’t get your irritation with the DC’s coverage of things too well, much less your invitation that they “move to another country”. Justo, no-one’s asking you to agree with all their views, or even any of them. But, look at it this way if you can. The DC is just a part of the process, of providing information & yes also their own opinions, on what’s actually going on in Bolivia. Sure, some arguable & maybe some even plain wrong (Jim incidentally has the humility to recognize this, something which I’ve seen from very few of his readers..), but they’re just a small part of the information & debating process in Bolivia. And the debating I’ve seen about Bolivia is so riddled with ideology, with rhetoric, with cobwebs, with “you can’t question that it’s one of my holy shrines”… Have you noticed how very rarely anyone changes their views, crosses a line? Have you noticed how little daring there is? How little questioning of one’s own beliefs, how little even looking for a fact or two, or quoting them in a more honest context?
So, my question to you Justo, it was in the DC’s report as you presumably know, ermm John Maynard Keynes, godfather of the IMF & World Bank, he once said…
“When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir”?
Me, Justo I change my mind too (or at least try to). And I’m ready to listen to you, the DC, & yes even trumpeters from the jungle for guidance.
My best,
Jack
I like Bush. It's funny to hear those people vent against him.
As comrade Castro likes to say, "History will absolve me."
History will absolve Bush.
Dear Jack,
You could have said all than in a much shorter way, luckily; I had some extra time today and I was able to read your awesome ranting. I will rescue some misinterpretations you are having about Bolivia and Evo’s achievements, probably due to your “mezzogiornio” accommodations. You wrote, “the other part of Bolivia’s debt reduction… well, guess what it’s come from VASTLY improving income from the few sources Bolivia has available right now, gas & minerals. Evo did that Justo, not Goni or Tuto or Banzer, not anyone before them. Changing the returns from 20% to 80%... jeez.”. Why do you think Bolivia has the available gas resources now, Jack? Do you really think that the Bolivian oil and gas fields, gas ducts, infrastructure, etc; popped out from nothing the day after Evo won the presidential elections? No, right Jack, it happened because of the neoliberal economy of Gony policies had a vision on the future and sold a corrupted and outdated national oil company to foreign investors when oil prices were in the floor. Which in turn created the “real” possibility of selling to Brazil, adding what was being sold to Argentina and even being able to sell to the US or anybody else that want to buy it. You are ranting that Goni, Tuto or Banzer did not increased the price of gas, and I will tell you; why should they had?, Douring their governments the oil and gas prices were low; you could maybe go after Tuto, but the guy received a Country in chaos, thanks to Evo, to rule only one year. As a matter of fact, Evo’s increasing the price of gas is a Carlos De Mesa idea and a Tuto’s proposition; since Evo promised Bolivians to kick the oil companies out and nationalize their assets while Tuto promised to nationalize the price of gas. Evo won the elections, but he did exactly what Tuto said we should do, funny thing how some people “suddenly realize” they were mistaken ones in office.
You also asked yourself why Evo is not spending in “roads, bridges, railways, factories, warehouses, better schools & hospitals the whole shebang, & instead of opening a thousand construction sites all over the country for this new infrastructure Bolivia’s not spending much at all & instead the country’s debt is just falling & falling.” And mumble about 4 bullshit excuses. Evo is heavily investing in Mazism propaganda, radio stations and being involved in constant political campaign because, as he informed all of us some days ago; he is only planning to be the democratically elected president of the country one more year. In his twisted mind, he thinks he will call for elections after the new Bolivian constitutions is approved; if the new constitution calls for elections and doesn’t give him directly the reign of the Country, off course. Win the elections, and be the ruler of Bolivia for life. He has no time to govern, and has no interest on doing it, just yet.
You said that “When the facts change, I change my mind.”, that is just fine and proactive; so I suggest you start getting your facts right before you run the risk of not being able to return to your Country, if you are a Bolivian, unless off course, you below to the “party” or have fascist tendencies and hate light skinned people.
Wow Jack! It will take me some time to go through and analyze your interesting and extensive post. Meanwhile, let me attach an article about Peru which was published in the Feb edition of Revista Dinero (Colombia)which I hope you and our fellow participants will find worth reading.
Regards, Justo
http://www.dinero.com/wf_InfoArticulo.aspx?IdArt=31409
Anonymous 4:45 said...
"The Bush goverment might be the worst goverment on earth but that doesnt make the Morales' goverment any better"
Actually, under a comparative advantage analysis wherein you weigh the impacts of competing policy implications of Bush and Evo, Evo wins.
Evo's mistakes are insignificant and under the radar, in terms of negative impacts on the status quo.
Take Jim's analysis, cross apply it here and weigh it along with the more significant harms of the Bush-Blunder-after-Blunder policies that led to
1) possible nuclear holocaust because Bush's unilateral war-mongering led the world to a new arms race (as in the example of North Korea and Iran hurriedly seeking nuclear weapons);
2) torture as an institutional US policy (as in the example of Gunatanamo and Abu Ghraib);
3) increase in global warming due to US refusal to adhere to minimum international standards to fight global warming, as articulated in the Kyoto Accord.
The world has voted. International polls list Bush as the world's most hated villain (more than Osama or Sadam Hussein) and the US as the most dangerous threat to the world (more dangerous than North Korea or Iran) whereas Evo has been nominated for an international peace prize.
Weigh impacts:
Bush government so bad that it is leading the world to a nuclear holocaust versus Evo's redistribution of wealth and increase in the health and education of poor Bolivians leading to frustrated fascists and Cambas.
For the reason stated above, the reader knows that in their heart-of-hearts, they must conclude that the Bush government is so bad that Evo's government seems much better, already.
PS. Norman, you should add the following to the impacts:
Evo's mistakes are of his own making while Bush's main mistake is attributed by Bush to God. Per Norman's sage advice and definition, Bush-without scriptural support-committed sacrilege and/or is a false prophet by claiming to speak for and/or to God by saying that the attack on Iraq (and apparently the hundreds of thousands of deaths caused by the attack and occupation of Iraq) was at the direction of God.
In contrast to that, Evo holds himself out to be a
Catholic. However, he engages in rituals beyond those of the average Catholic by engaging in certain pagan rites (generally related to coca leaves and vague notions of a "pachamama" belief system), none of which are known to have lead to a direct or indirect loss of life based on any claims of having spoken to and/or speaking for God.
Dear El Grindio,
Your "comparative advantage analysis" is simply irrelevant.
A thing's having a certain property can only be true or false and it's being true or false is no way depends on whether the person attributing the property has the same property herself.
Hi Justo,
Thanks for the article on Peru. I read it & yes, it's an interesting & informative account on Peru & its economy. Nice to see people linking to good news stories on Latin America!
Re. my previous post, just in case there is any need to clarify, I hope you did't take it the wrong way. It wasn't intended to pick on you personally, I was just letting off a bit of steam & trying to open people's minds a bit maybe.
Anyhows, if you've got any comments or disagreements I'm very happy to hear them too ofcourse.
My best,
Jack
Hi BL,
yeah sorry if it was a bit long that one, & thanks very much for taking the time & trouble to read it!
you make some reasonable points too, i'll come back to you as soon as i can.
My best,
Jack
Jack,
No need to worry. I don’t take your comments personally. You are an articulate, intelligent and educated person. It is always a pleasure to read your posts even though we might not agree in every aspect.
I am glad you found the article about Peru interesting. My family and I hold Bolivia and Peru very close to our hearts. We spent wonderful times in both countries and still keep close ties.
We lived in Peru during Garcia’s first term (or maybe I should call it his “political teenage” period ;-) ). Those were truly difficult years for everyone living there in a time when SL and MRTA were probably at the peak of their terrorist insane violence and the economy was in the greatest chaos. The immense feeling of despair of the Peruvians was something hard to forget.
I returned to Peru last year and was impressed and amazed by the tremendous progress I found across the country and the great optimism of the people. There is obviously still a lot to do in terms of poverty reduction, education and justice but the simple fact that a nation can recover from practically being disintegrated and show after a few years the excellent economic perspectives of today simply fills me with optimism and hope that poverty can be reduced through the application of intelligent policies.
Regards,
Justo
To throw my $0.02
I was reading the IMF article that Jim wrote and one thing is clear from the 1st parragraph where he seems to imply there where sharpshooters in the IMF offices under order from the IMF to shoot innocent Bolivians.
It gets a little better with the historical background, but ignores and tells mostly half truths. As mentioned above the oil prices and the FINDING of gas thanks to attracting investors thanks to 'neo-liberal' policies. The lies and half-truths start with the privatization of the water system. The WB was against it and this is clearly documented. The economic analysis is also extremely flawed and that's where I just had to stop wasting my time with the rest. To start, there are different kinds of deficit spending and please you can't write about this episode without mentioning 2 words: Sachs & 21060. Each one of these deserves an entire chapter....
To the commenter above, here is the actual paragraph which actually makes no claim whatsoever that there were sharpshooters in the IMF office. Try learning to read.
"Through the large windows of the International Monetary Fund's office in La Paz you can see down to the rooftop where Ana Colque was shot and killed in February 2003. Army sharpshooters sent a bullet through her chest during a military assault intended to quell public protests against an economic belt-tightening package imposed on Bolivia by the IMF."
Thanks Justo! I was wondering you might have misinterpreted the 1-to-1 dialogue in that earlier one but glad you saw through it.
On Peru, your love for it which glows through, know what you mean even if I only caught a glimpse of it first-hand. I passed through Lima in the late 80’s, spent a night at the hotel in Plaza San Martin which had been bombed not long before by Sendero, scary times indeed. Must be great for you & your family to see the country’s getting on its feet again.
Have you ever read Vargas Llosa’s “Lituma en los Andes”? I recommend it to you if not, a truly great book & real page turner, gripping story set out with the backdrop of SL’s activities out in the rural areas.
My best to you buddy, & looking forward to reading you again,
Jack
Thanks Jack, I will definitely take your advice and read MVLL’s Lituma en los Andes. If you decide to visit Peru again (something I definitely recommend) you should try staying in Lima’s Marriot hotel in Miraflores. The view into the Pacific and the sunsets during the summer months are just breathtaking. Obviously Cuzco and Machu Picchu are also a must.
Regards,
Justo
Briefly on the idea some people (Anon Two Cents & maybe BL too?) seem to have that Bolivia’s gas income is better now under Evo because market prices are better than what they used to be before… Actually it’s surprising there can be such misunderstanding on even fairly simple (basically mathematical) issues, anyway…
The gas turnaround (from the US$140 million say that I’ve seen quoted for the pre-Evo period to the US$1,5 to over 2 billion expected for this year) has got nothing, or very little, to do with the higher market gas prices compared to before.
Because..
1. the whole point about Evo’s turnaround is that the CUT Bolivia gets now is higher. Before it was 20% & now it’s 80%. Independently of what the market price is then, Bolivia gets 4 times a better CUT than it did before!
2. Like I tried to explain in the earlier post, but didn’t seem to get through, the higher the market price is the more important it is to get as high a cut as you can for it. Because if you have a low cut on something that’s worth a LOT you lose out a whole load more than a low cut on something that’s worth LITTLE! In case that’ still not clear, if somone was to offer you one 20% cut and one 80% cut, on a pound of silver & a pound of tomatoes say, & you get to choose which cut to apply to which commodity, what would you pick?
80% on the silver yeah? Too right… same as Evo…
And that’s why Bolivia is getting so much more money now from its gas. Which as gas prices, or production output, increase further will make an even bigger difference in future. It’s the CUT you get that makes the key difference guys, that silver’s turning into gold, & may go platinum one day soon, & we want to treat it like tomatoes …???
Jack
And now to you BL, I’ll dedicate a few lines to you, coz you’ve gone to the trouble of replying with some comments, some time, & have done so before on this blog I’ve seen.When someone does that it must mean he feels for Bolivia, has something to say, & is willing to spend the time making his point. And, believe it or not BL, reading between the lines of what you write, I think there’s quite a bit of stuff you write that actually is fair, makes sense, has to be put into the equation in some way or other.
So I won’t take you up on your points. Not because I couldn’t, or agree with your whole line, I don’t, but I’ve ranted enough already probably & think I can guess where you’re coming from. You’re right to say that some of what Bolivia can enjoy now on the gas is due to what was done before. You’re right to say that the free market has brought some good to Bolivia too. That it’s not a system to just throw away. I think, well actually I’m sure, you’re also right to be concerned about what the extremist elements in the government or MAS could do to Bolivia, & what could come out of the CA or other reforms being made. Probably concerns a lot of people too BL, even the DC have mentioned this point several times. And you’re right to speak up for the Oriente, the most developed & dynamic part of Bolivia. Actually, you’re right about enough things, in my mind, that there’s no need to argue about the finer points with you every single post.
In fact BL, I may be taking a gamble, but I doubt it & even if so it’s probably just a little one, I reckon you & me, & maybe a whole load of readers on the site would probably agree on a a surprising amount of things about Bolivia.You know, that we want things to work out for the better, that we don’t want a civil war, our families & friends getting hurt, that we don’t want a regime or communism or any other type of totalitarian system to come in, that we’d like Bolivia to be richer, & that some part of these riches to go to those who have so little (if only to get them a bit happier & a bit less mad at the rest of us), that changes have to be made, that we’re a bit scared about this, how it could be done etc etc
In fact so much agreement BL that if some of us met each other by chance in some bar in Santa Cruz or Cocha or wherever we’d probably be kind of friendly with each other, who knows have a few beers & some laughs & stuff & think “hey he was quite a cool dude”. And you know the funny thing, that despite this, when each of us gets infront of his PC “sitting in his underpants in Miami with nothing else better to do” (to borrow a phrase of Jim’s I saw some time ago), it could be kind of easy to think that we don’t actually agree on so many things at all, you know the quips here & there, the occasional offence or insult, the holding one’s own line at any cost, the looking for evidence to show you’re right & the other guy’s wrong etc etc
And this BL, the “sitting in our underpants in Miami” syndrome, the misunderstandings & disagreements, happen even though there’s probably a whole bunch of things we have in common, you know speaking English, owning or having access to a pc, internet, knowing what Time magazine & the Wall Street Journal are, eating foreign food, going to the cinema, a whole bunch of stuff. Sure, we also have our lots of different angles, he’s from Sucre, you’re from Sta Cruz, another guy was in Peru in the tough times, another’s maybe hooking in from Washington or Paris, & we all probably lead different lives in some way or other, but still there’s something we have in common, & it’s not little, we can see the guy in the bar & know rightaway he doesn’t come from Mars, we can have our different points of view but in some way or other we still speak the same kind of lingo..
And then I think about the rural radio programme you mentioned in your post. And the funny thing BL is that even on this we’re probably not a million miles away buddy. I’m not any braver than you I’m sure, & I am kind of worried too if this were to be used for disseminating political propaganda, that it may create more divide, more hate even, in Bolivia. Same as you. But then I think BL well what about a guy stuck out somewhere miles away from anything we’d call a proper town or village… on the altiplano, in the mountains, or in the jungles of the Pando or wherever.. & how he could be thinking about the radio programme. ..
And I wonder, if the sitting in our underpants syndrome can hit you & me, dividing us – who have so much in common - say on our “Who is our favourite President in Bolivia” or “Who laid which gas pipe where” quizzes, well maybe could it hit that poor guy too regards the radio programme?
That he might be thinking it could be useful for him to find out where he can get some injections for his kids, or some lessons for how to read & write, or news on the storm that’s coming, where the roads are cut off & how to get out of the flood area, or what his wife should do coz she’s got a bad infection in her eye. And that when he sees us kind of iffy about the radio programme, not so sure about it, that he might not himself get some Miami syndrome too…
..& think we don’t want his kids to have injections, or to know when the storm’s coming in, how to get away from the water, find out what sickness his wife got. When it’s not true BL! Coz neither you or me have any problem with this stuff! Actually we’d probably both want him to have all this & more straightaway…
But that’s the Miami syndrome BL, it’s a bitch, & an even nastier bitch when there isn’t the same lingo, when his hair is a bit darker than ours, his clothing different, when we drink beer & caipirinhas & he drinks chicha, when he sticks a dead llama under the corner of his house & we don’t.
Bad-ass bitch it is BL, so much that it convinces is that we might be right in thinking he shouldn’t get the radio programme anyway, even if it helps him get injections & out of the water, because we know BL, both of us & I agree on this, that if the radio programme is going to be funded by MAS we know what the political line will be, that they won’t just be airwaving health clinic & weather stuff, cooking recipes & comedy shows, & the bad-ass bitch gets us so bad so bad sooo baaad that we think it’s got to be avoided at all costs, that it’s going to bring the country to ruin, burn away all our gas money, that we even have a right to not let them have it….
… we forget that maybe we’re talking about a radio programme coz the guys out there don’t have a TV, or even any TV signal, that radio was the only option & costs a heck of a lot less than a new TV channel, we forget we’re hooked up to our MP3’s, got a chicken curry in the microwave & an apple pie in the oven, a funny DVD to watch later with our families, we forget that it’s also these things & not just the chicha & the dead llama that divide us, we forget that maybe it’s not only us that can get the Miami syndrome, we forget that at some point we just have to let go on some things, we forget there’s a situation out there right now that we can’t fully control anymore…
BL, I’ve taken a risk homing in on perhaps the most delicate issue you raised in your post, the one that with some legitimacy maybe worries us all the most. And I’m risking double because I don’t actually know too much about the programme, who will get it, what it will be used for, how much it will cost. You may know a lot more about it, & I for one will be interested to hear your views, maybe also some objective info too if possible, on it.
That aside – radio programme yes or no – I reckon we should maybe keep an eye on the Miami syndrome just a bit (it’s not just bad-ass, it’s also highly contagious..). You & me we have so much in common probably that we can’t seriously disagree about the really important things, things that are make or break for our families & their well-being.
With others that may not be the case BL. The divide is probably too big right now, things will anyway get misunderstood. And those folk have decided anyway to make a break for it, & yes you’re right probably they’re not that interested in listening to the rest of us right now. But BL, maybe it was like that too, just the other way around, for a long time before? Maybe we just got to let that process move ahead, find its own course? We’re a part of the equation too, we’ll have to be listened to also at some point. They’ll have to come back to us some day..
That’s why how we think & talk right now has a certain importance. It’s got to be more for closing the gap than widening it. More for calming others on our side too, rather than worrying them all the more. More for choosing maybe fewer important things to fight for? Doing it in a gentler tone perhaps? Letting other matters just find their own course?
And if that means having to let the occasional radio programme get rolled out, even if the airtime won’t be about just cooking recipes & weather forecasts, even if the dj will be saying stuff we don’t agree with at all, well maybe it’s just the way it’s got to go right now.
Sometimes we’re just going to have to swallow BL, & maybe hard.
My best, siempre, y de corazon,
Jack
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