Back on the Road

From winter approaching to almost summer. From fields of chewing cows and freshly cut corn, to airports, freeways, and long-awaited reunions with family, friends and Thai food. From south to north. I'm on my way to the road once again.

In the next four weeks I will pass my way through California, Washington, London, Kosovo, Montenegro, and Madrid. I'll miss the eucalyptus grove where the dogs and I take our morning tea just after sunrise. What am I doing? Well, depending on which conspiracy theory you believe, I am either paving the way for Hugo, Evo, Fidel and George Soros to seek world domination, or helping Ambassador Goldberg and the Santa Cruz Civic Committee organize an anti-Evo insurrection. The truth is not nearly so interesting as either, so I'll leak it out bit by bit along the way, for those who care (and few do).

I read the latest political news as I headed to the airport. I love Manfred Reyes Villa. In a world so full of politicians who go to great pains to fake consistency, Governor Bon-Bom doesn't even make the effort.

Two weeks ago when Evo-foes pushed the national recall vote for President, Vice-President and the Governors out of the Congress, and Evo approved it, Manfred not only embraced it but also proclaimed that it had been his original idea and that it should have been adopted a year ago. "How many lives and confrontations would have been avoided if in that moment we had approved the law?" he told CNN.

Well, now there is a new poll out that the newspapers have declared to spell worrisome news for Manfred (more on that in a bit) and Reyes Villa is trashing the idea of a recall vote. Today's Los Tiempos quotes the Cochabamba Governor's spokesman saying that the vote is a waste of taxpayer dollars and that instead Bolivia should just have a new national vote to refill all the offices. What a difference two weeks makes? Was it the polling? Is Reyes Villa just trying to keep us confused? Or is this another side effect, like the flu, of "el cambio de clima."

Like I said, you have to like a guy who thinks that consistency isn't even worth faking.

Reyes Villa is also reportedly threatening to sit out the vote if the President of the National Electoral Court doesn't resign (Manfred says he's an Evo partisan). Though it remains unclear how one sits out an election approved legally and with support from both MAS and the opposition.

Okay, to that poll. Los Tiempos declared, based on the survey of 800 people in Bolivia's four largest cities (La Paz, El Alto, Santa Cruz and Cochabamba) that Morales and Santa Cruz governor Costas are in good shape, that Reyes Villa is in trouble and that "Pepe Lucho" in La Paz is toast. But, having been a student of polling, I think the results (if they are accurate, and Bolivian polling rarely is) say something slightly different.

Remember now, that the vote here is not based on winning a simple majority but to have No votes against you greater than what each of these folks were elected with in 2005. Read that complicated explanation here.

Evo, says the poll, currently enjoys a 48% vote in his favor, a 38% vote against him, and 14% undecided or unwilling to say. To be ousted in August, 54% of those voting would have to give him a thumbs down. So, even if every single one of the undeclared goes against Evo, he would still come out on top.

Manfred, says the survey has 49% in his favor, 37% against and 15% undeclared. To be removed from office that 37% would need to leap to 48%. That means that almost all the undecideds would have to vote to nuke their Governor, which seems unlikely. But polls like these always underreport the rural vote and in Cochabamba that vote, a MAS stronghold, is Manfred's nightmare. That may be why suddenly the Manfred camp doesn't think the whole voting idea looks so good.

And yes, "Pepe Lucho" is toast. Only 38% of the voters there need to vote to remove him in order to do so, and the poll says that 50% have already decided to do so.

Whoa, okay I am headed to a place where elections are more simple. You know, where Super delegates decide things after six months of popular voting, where voting in Michigan and Florida may or may not matter, and where you can still be elected President while losing the popular vote. So clean compared to Bolivia.

Don't fret, the rest of The Democracy Center team will be on hand to keep Blog readers up to date as things change in Bolivia. I'm still betting that Santa Cruz will be annexed by Croatia or Belgium, but this is, of course, conjecture.

As for me, don't eat all the corn before I get home, smell the eucalyptus every chance you get, and stop by Casablanca for a cappuccino from time to time. Elio is going to lose a lot of business in my absence.

And oh yes, I'll look for something interesting to write while on the road.