What Happened to "Democracy equals 2/3?"

I saw one again the other day, a pale blue relic stuck to a shelf of a lawyer's office in Cochabamba, a small flag reading: “2/3 Democracia”.

Not so long ago the streets of Cochabamba, Santa Cruz and a few other Bolivian cities were full of such flags, symbols of the opposition’s demand that each individual plank of the new constitution be approved by full 2/3 vote of the Constituent Assembly.

Well-scrubbed youth could be seen wearing the same slogan on white t-shirts. I remember asking one such young woman who worked in a restaurant on El Prado here why she felt so strongly about the issue. "The owner told us to wear them."

Well that's one reason.

Nevertheless it was a heartfelt and aggressively advocated position. The nation should not go forward, we were told, on a path supported only by a simple majority. Bolivia needed something closer to a national consensus. And 2/3, dos tercios, was the chosen target, printed on flags and painted on walls like the one pictured above.

It's looking now like some of those Morales opponents wished they'd chosen a higher number, like maybe 9/10. On August 10 more than 67% of those casting ballots gave their vote in favor the Morales Presidency, and the course he is advocating for the nation.

So much for 2/3.

A Nation Divided, but not 50/50

Bolivia is a divided nation, to be sure. But it is not a nation divided in half. It is a nation divided by 2/3 on one side and 1/3 on the other, each demanding that the country be steered its way. Put more simply, imagine three people in a car on a road trip, arguing over directions at a fork in the road. Two people in the front seat want to go left, and the guy in the back wants to go right. Allowing sufficient time for discussion and argument of all views, at a certain point, do we really think that the guy yelling alone in the backseat ought to dictate the decision? Neither do most Bolivians.

The August 10 elections not only revealed the actual numbers on support and opposition to Morales, they also showed us where that split resides geographically. Gone is the argument that the nation is split in half east and west. Evo won majorities in two of the five supposed anti-Evo departments, Chuquisaca and Pando, and split the vote 50/50 in a third, Tarija.

In real numbers the opposition to Evo is really concentrated in two places, the cities of Santa Cruz and Sucre, urban areas surrounded by a good number of rural Morales backers. In other parts of Bolivia, especially the countryside, Morales support commonly exceeds 75%.

But those two cities know how to make noise and it is noise they are making now, seemingly all the louder as their political isolation becomes more clear and more certain.

Who Says it’s Your Oil?

Ostensibly the current battle lines are around revenue from gas and oil. Leaders of the eastern departments, including those Evo won, are demanding a greater share of that revenue and Morales insists on taking a piece to fund pensions for the elderly.

This analysis has gotten more attention of late, especially as Santa Cruz and others have shut themselves down in protest. But there are two big things left often forgotten.

The first is what I like to call, "But you haven’t even finished the slice of pie you have!"

Take a look at the budget figures for departments in Bolivia. As in most low-income countries, governments in Bolivia never spend all the money in the budgets they have. They just don’t have the capacity to get the money out the door. What do the departmental governments want to spend the money for that surpasses what they already have? It is not an unreasonable question.

Of course the Governors would like more money from oil and gas. Here in Cochabamba, Manfred Reyes Villa was one of the governors who complained most bitterly for a bigger share of oil and gas cash. But what did he buy with the gas and oil money he did have? Well, a dubious fleet of brand new overpriced Toyota Land Cruisers, three of which were a part of his personal entourage (I watched the motorcade in action on Election Day in Plaza Colon).

FYI, having shopped around for cars myself earlier this year I think Manfred could have done just as nicely, and much cheaper, with a 1995 two-door Toyota Rav4. Just be sure to super glue your taillights to the car (they get stolen).

The second problem with the gas and oil revenue analysis is what I like to call, "Who says its your oil and gas?"

For more than two years we have been hearing from leaders in Santa Cruz and Tarija about “our gas and oil, our gas and oil,” based on the claim that the luck of geology put it under their feet. But these are leaders from the cities, and the gas and oil is under the ground in the rural areas of those departments, including areas where Morales and MAS enjoy a good deal of political support.

It won’t be too much longer before the leaders of the Santa Cruz Civic Committee suddenly feel a tap on their shoulder from behind and a voice saying, “Hey dude, in case you haven’t noticed, that gas and oil you like to talk about as yours – it ain’t under Alexander’s Cafe or Burger King.”

Elections Ought to Mean Something

And finally there is this. Aren’t elections supposed to mean something?

Three times in a row now, by escalating majorities, Evo and MAS have won national elections – the Presidential vote in 2005, the Assembly vote in 2006, and again this month.

Yes, Evo and MAS should negotiate with their adversaries. Yes, MAS should not seek to build a monolithic state in which it assumes too much power. Yes, national operations should be decentralized so that people don't have to take a bus to La Paz to process a simple public form. But look folks, the vast majority of Bolivians have spoken, and spoken, and spoken, in favor of a turn of direction and it is time to let the government they selected govern.

This isn’t Gonzalo Sanchez de Lozada in 2003, elected with less than 25% of the vote and half as popular as that by the time he fled to Maryland. This is a genuine and historic mandate. If all those people who, a year ago, said they were fighting for “democracy” meant it, then doesn’t democracy also mean that the majority, especially a strong one, ought to decide the nation’s path.

It might be time in Bolivia to take out all those old "2/3 Democracia" t-shirts and flags once more. Some of the people wearing and waving them could use the reminder.