Walkin´ and Talkin´ Toward a New Constitution

Readers,

I am traveling in Bolivia right now, which on the one hand is a great blessing as always. On the other hand it makes posting here a little more sporadic. Here is an update on the current political Tinku headed toward a national vote on a new constitution. Later this week we´ll be back to announce a Democracy Center action on President Bush´s effort to put 20,000 Bolivians out of work as he heads out of office.

Jim Shultz


Walkin´ and Talkin´ Toward a New Constitution

The good news as this week begins is that the battle over a new Bolivian constitution remains a peaceful one. During the weekend the Morales government and the opposition governors continued to meet in Cochabamba, with arrangements for a national vote on the constitution starting to move to center stage.

Meanwhile, this morning, a march headed toward the capital in La Paz began in the Cochabamba town of Caracollo. That march, by supporters of President Morales and other social movements, aims to reach the Bolivian Congress, a walk of more than 200 miles, a week from today. Expected to number in the tens of thousands by the time it arrives, the mobilization will surround the Congress to pressure legislators – in the opposition-controlled Senate in particular – to approve a national vote on the constitution proposal backed by Morales and MAS.

Re-Election at Center Stage

While the proposed MAS-backed constitution covers a wide variety of topics, from indigenous autonomy to land reform, it has become increasingly clear that the centerpiece issue for Morales and MAS is the one that most directly effects their ability to stay in power beyond the scheduled end of Evo´s term in January 2011. Under the current constitution Morales is ineligible to run for re-election in 2010. The new constitution allows for a single re-election, a compromise from MAS original desire for multiple opportunities to be returned to office.

Under the Morales-MAS plan, a national constitutional vote would be scheduled for January 25, 2009, and if approved would trigger new national elections, for President, Congress, and Governors, in June 2009. If Morales is elected again in June, as seems almost certain, that new term would be considered his first under the new system. That would make him eligible to be voted in once again in 2014 and potentially extending his presidency until 2019. Interviewed on radio Sunday, Morales declared that five years is simply not long enough for he and his party to guide the process of change they are seeking for the nation.

Last week, Vice-President Alvaro Garcia Linera announced that MAS was willing to entertain some revisions in the MAS constitution, in the name of seeking some form of consensus with its opponents, particularly the governors. What those changes would be remains more than unclear.

A Weakened Opposition

The political opposition is now clearly much weaker than what it was even two months ago. The 67% support received by Morales in the August referendum originally called for by the opposition has made it clear how narrow a national base the anti-MAS governors are operating with. In Tarija and Santa Cruz the August vote showed MAS support gaining, and running especially strong in the rural areas there. Three of the original anti-MAS governors have also disappeared from the scene – two of them by losing in landslides August 10th and another now jailed for his accused role in the Pando massacre.

Those governors also used to invoke some moral authority, claiming that they were the genuine protectors of Bolivian democracy while MAS was filled with political street hoodlums. But the torching of Santa Cruz with support from those leaders, and the massacre in Pando, eliminated whatever moral authority opposition leaders may have had.

Tarija Governor Mario Cossio, who has emerged as the more moderate among them, declared last week that the tool of opposition is ¨the vote¨ and announced a unified opposition effort to defeat the MAS constitution if it comes to a vote, as seems inevitable.

Is Marching Democracy?

MAS opponents have charged that the march headed for La Paz starting this morning is a threat to Bolivian democracy, an effort to force the Congress to act under pressure.

Is marching on Congress a democratic act or an undemocratic one? It sort of depends on what happens when they get there.

On the one hand, there is an undeniable national majority behind the changes being backed by MAS and Morales, even if it is less than the 67% that voted in August to keep Morales in the Presidency. The demand being made to the Congress is not that the new constitution be approved, but that the Bolivian people be given the right to decide the issue´s fate at the ballot. By definition, giving the people such a choice is profoundly democratic, as is a peaceful assemblage aimed at pressuring the Congress to let that vote go forward.

On the other hand, if the Congressional vote takes place amidst tossed dynamite and physical threats against lawmakers, it is hard to call that ¨democratic¨. Which scenario will arrive in Plaza Murillo a week from today is unclear.

My bet: By the time the march arrives the Congress will already have approved the January vote, with or without some minor changes demanded by the opposition. The march, rather than being a violent action, will be the kick-off of MAS campaign for the January vote, one it will win easily. And Evo will win the presidential vote just as easily in June.
Is it important that MAS have an opposition that can hold it accountable? Yes. It needs a responsible and capable opposition from both the right and the left, to keep it honest and to hold it to the larger principles and policies it is supposedly in office to promote.

But so far those who would hold MAS accountable from the right have proven inept and narrow-minded at every turn and those who would hold it accountable from the left have never been able to find their footing as so many of their allies have joined MAS´ranks with full loyalty.

So if, after November passes and two years of election madness in the U.S. is over, you still find yourself hungering for more campaigning – keep your eyes on Bolivia in 2010. We´ll have more elections here next year than salteñas, and they´ll likely be hotter as well.