Voices from Latin America is a project of the Democracy Center and our friends both North and South to bring Latin American perspectives into the U.S. debate.
U.S. Elections - The Process
Although the 2008 elections have now come to a close, we hope that this information continues to be a useful resource.
2008 – Distinct and Important
The 2008 Presidential and Congressional races in the United States may have greater domestic and international significance than any national election in recent memory. With issues ranging from the war in Iraq to health care reform in the US, the decisions made by voters this year will have far reaching and long lasting effects. Those effects will be felt not only by people in the US, but abroad as well.
The 2008 US elections are also the most wide-open of any recent election in modern history. Political control is at stake for the Presidency and both houses of Congress. For the Presidency, for the first time in 80 years, there is no incumbent President or Vice President running for election. In both the House of Representatives and the Senate, the two bodies that make up Congress, the Democrats hold a slim majority over the Republicans. The elections could swing control of each of the two houses both ways, creating a scenario where either party could end up with control of none or all of these three key bodies of US government.
With an extremely unpopular President and widespread discontent with Congress, the need for change is a significant undercurrent in this election. The atmosphere may finally be in place for such a monumental shift to take place.
Foreign Policy Issues Take Center Stage – Effects on Latin America
Traditionally, US politics focuses on domestic issues. This includes issues such as taxes, economic development, and crime. However, with the war in Iraq approaching its fifth year, foreign policy is taking priority for the first time in thirty years. People in the United States are becoming conscious of the impact their nation’s foreign policies have on people around the world, including Latin America. In the arena of foreign policy, it is the War in Iraq that is the top issue in most people’s minds and discussed frequently by all the Presidential candidates. Recent polls indicate that 65% of the US population opposes the war in Iraq and 63% think the war was not worth fighting. What will be done in response to this growing sentiment? What will the spillover be within the broader foreign policy framework? How will the experience in Iraq change the role the US plays globally? The Iraq War serves as a starting point for discussions on foreign policy that have not taken place in much of the United States for decades.
This renewed focus on foreign policy includes two dominant issues particular to Latin America: trade and immigration. Nearly fifteen years after the inception of NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement), Presidential and Congressional candidates are beginning to reevaluate the consequences of free trade deals. NAFTA has become a natural debating point more than at any point since its adoption. There is increasing awareness within the country of the effects that previous free trade deals have had both inside and outside the US. With agreements pending between the US and a number of Latin American countries, the candidates are taking widely varied stances. Some call for these agreements to continue as they have been, others want more focus placed on environmental and labor standards, and others are calling for a halt to all future deals and a reevaluation of those that have already been signed.
Immigration policy has also been given an immense amount of attention in the past two years. Although immigrants are entering the United States from countries all over the world, the majority of the focus in this debate has been placed on those coming from Mexico and the rest of Latin America. All candidates are calling for immigration reform with stances varying greatly – from providing a path to citizenship for current immigrants to severely limiting the number of immigrants the US accepts each year.
Although foreign policy will be the lead topic in this election, there are still several domestic issues getting a lot of attention from the candidates. These include:
- Economy -- the recent downturn in the US economy has lead to widespread anxiety and made this the most important issue in the campaign.
- Health Care -- 15% of the population in the US is without health insurance yet health care costs remain higher than any other country in the world. Solutions and ideas to combat this vary greatly among candidates, but all have offered one.
- Domestic security -- a consistent concern for much of the nation since September 11th, 2001, it will certainly play a part in this election as well.
- Global warming – concerns about the effects of climate change are an important issue for the first time and a further example of the global impact of US policy.
- Social Security -- How to maintain the effectiveness of the federal program of support for those over 65 years old continues to be a question.
Election Process
As in many nations, elections are held for public offices at all levels – from local to national. In 2008 the focus is on the national elections for Congress and President. Once again two parties dominate – the Democrats and the Republicans – representing the left/center and right/center respectively.
For Presidential and Congressional elections there are three stages: primaries, conventions, and the general election. In the primaries stage, voters, registered as Republicans or Democrats, determine who will be the nominee of their party for the various national offices at stake. For President, primary voting is done state by state over a period of several months. The first primary was held January 3 and the last was held June 3.
Based on these primary elections, candidates are awarded delegates to their party’s national convention. At the convention the delegates vote to select their party’s nominee. For decades the nominee has been clear long before the conventions are held – the winner of the various primary votes. The conventions then become merely televised showcases for their party and candidates. This is also when the candidates declare their selections for their Vice Presidential running mates. In the United States, the Presidential and Vice Presidential candidates compete together as one. The conventions are also a time to set forth the party platform and rally support going into the general election. This year the Democrats held their convention August 25-28 and the Republicans September 1-4.
The general election for the President is held nationwide on the first Tuesday in November – November 4th this year. As in the primaries, votes are tabulated within each state and then converted, in this case to votes in the Electoral College. It is through this system, not the popular vote, that candidates are directly elected. In order to be elected, a candidate needs to win a majority of the 538 Electoral College votes, which are allocated in proportion to each state’s population. With only two exceptions , the states have a winner-take-all approach to the casting of votes. This means that the candidate who receives the most votes in each state gets all of the Electoral College votes from that state, regardless of the margin of victory. This explains what happened in 2000 in the Presidential race between Al Gore and George Bush. Although throughout the nation Al Gore received more total votes than George Bush, Bush finished first in enough states to the receive the required majority of Electoral College votes.
Because the general election is essentially a race to finish first in each state – as opposed to winning the popular vote – presidential candidates concentrate only on states they believe they can win. The focus of the campaigns is then a handful of “swing” states where both candidates have a chance to come in first.
Time and Money
Aside from the system of elections, two critical differences between campaigns in the US and elsewhere is their length and the amount of money involved. In Presidential elections for example, the entire process is now at least a year and a half long. One result of the ever-lengthening duration of campaigns has been their increasing price. For example, in the 2004 Presidential election, over $1 billion was spent, up 56% from 2000 and 112% from 1996. The 2008 elections are already smashing all records.
So where does all this money come from? In short, any person, organization, or corporation that has an interest in the outcome of the election. One development in recent elections has been the role of the Internet in fundraising. Candidates have been able to make broad national appeals for funds and successfully raise large amounts of money in very brief periods. For example, in December Republican Ron Paul was able to raise $6 million in one day. This tool has increased the ease of donating and encouraged non-traditional donors to give to campaigns – Democrat Barak Obama now has more than one million individual donors. However, with the large sums of money necessary to run in an election, candidates are still beholden to the people and organizations that donate the most. Although there have been attempts to reform the financing system, particularly in the last decade, they have yet to effectively limit the influence that big donors have.
Voting
In the United States, any citizen over the age of 18 is eligible to vote. Voting is done on a completely voluntary basis.
Historically voter turnout varies greatly, especially based on voters’ age, income, and race – with blacks and Latinos for example less likely to vote than whites. Nationally the percentage of eligible voters who cast their ballot has hovered at 50-55% for four decades. This means that a candidate who receives a little over half the vote (if even that) is elected by just more than a quarter of the voting population. Common reasons for not voting include a general distrust of politicians; feelings of disconnect towards the available candidates; and skepticism about what, if any, impact Presidents have on peoples’ lives. Unfortunately the longer people hold these opinions, the truer they become.
As noted, Hispanic voters turn out is typically lower than the national average. Currently Hispanics comprise 15% of the US population, but only 9% of the electorate. This disparity has two main causes: the high number of Hispanics in the US who are not citizens, and the relative youthfulness of the Hispanic population with a large number of people under the age of 18. Despite this, their impact on the 2008 elections may be greater than the numbers suggest with a larger population in several key states.