A Day of Protests

I don’t know how other cities are affected, but Cochabamba is the scene of a large protest today, part of a nationwide demand to rescind the increases in gas prices approved by the Bolivian government. The government claims that if prices aren’t increased that cheap Bolivian gas will be bought up and will disappear over the border, sold as contraband in neighboring countries where gas is more expensive. While the government’s claim may be legitimate, there are certainly ways to stop illegal trafficking in gas and oil besides raising prices for so many families who can’t afford it. Labor groups, the coca growers union, and many others have joined in the protests nationwide.

A reporter for the Miami Herald contacted me this morning and asked a question that is on the minds of many Bolivia watchers abroad – will these protests topple President Carlos Mesa? Mesa himself assumed the Presidency just over a year ago when his predecessor, Gonzalo Sànchez de Lozada, was ousted by a popular uprising over a gas export plan.

I don’t think that Mesa is going to be ousted from office over this. Mesa’s public support is much higher than Goni’s was and, despite the conflicts, he has a very strong capacity for dialogue with all the groups protesting. The alternatives also aren’t too pretty. No one seems to like the President of the House of Representatives who would succeed Mesa and I don’t think many people, even movement leaders, want the uncertainties that a Mesa departure would trigger.

The groups demanding the end of water privatization in El Alto have made it very clear publicly, and privately to me, that they have no interest in toppling Mesa. Evo Morales and the coca growers also don’t seem anywhere close to that demand. They only major group calling for Mesa to resign are those protesting the gas price increases in Santa Cruz and they are probably doing that just to up the rhetorical ante.

If I end up wrong you’ll see it here first.